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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220108142126.63DC41C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2022 14:21:26 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 081430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/0814300Z-090600ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081421ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.4S 173.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 173.3E, APPROXIMATELY
278 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 080716Z AMSR2 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW CONCENTRATED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDS ORIENTED IN A NORTH-SOUTH ARC ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A
08948Z ASCAT BULLSEYE FURTHER REVEALS A LARGE SWATH OF 30-35 KNOT
WINDS MIRRORING THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LLCC
WITH 20 KTS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN THE REMAINING QUADRANTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 1430)
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.9S 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
EAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 080324Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 90P WILL DEEPEN AS IT
LOITERS NEAR ITS CURRENT LOCATION BUT REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.
NNNN


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