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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220108152124.467ED1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2022 15:21:24 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 081521
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jan 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to east of a
trough near 10N115W. The ITCZ then resumes west of the trough=20
11N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 14N between 116W and 126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 30N130W. This feature=20
dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California=20
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas over these=20
waters are in the 3-5 ft range. Light to gentle winds with seas=20
of 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the next several days=20
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas will remain in=20
the 3-5 ft range through Tuesday. The next NW swell event will
reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia late on Tuesday, building
seas to 8-10 ft. The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec=20
region is expected on Sun night when strong north winds are surge
southward from southeastern Mexico to across the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec. Gale conditions will be possible beginning late on=20
Mon and lasting through Wed night. Seas are forecast to peak up=20
to 12-18 ft with this gap-wind event on Tue. Strong high=20
pressure over the southwestern United States is forecast to bring
fresh to locally strong winds over the central and southern Gulf
of California on Monday. Fresh to strong north winds are=20
expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The Wolf Volcano located in the Galapagos Islands at 00N 91.3W=20
is currently producing a plume of volcanic ash that is spreading
westward to over the waters near 92W and from the equator to=20
01N. Although the plume is becoming faint, mariners traveling=20
over these waters are urged to exercise caution. For more=20
information please check the website:=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html__;!!=
DZ3fjg!tEiZrqEorz5zkQqCb00nDLjI_Q4KZkybILesoa1V7SvoFGOhV7t8VLU2XpAW2U4fyEDA=
S_uD$=20

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong=20
NE to E gap winds over in the Gulf of Papagayo region along with
seas of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft=20
continue across the remainder of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support=20
the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
through mid-week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the Gulf of
Panama will diminish to gentle speeds Mon and Tue, then increase
back up to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night through Wed night.
Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon=20
trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the=20
monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1020 mb located near 30N130W dominates the=20
northern forecast waters, mainly north of 15N and west of 120W.=20
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure along
the ITCZ is producing mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to=20
16N west of 120W. Seas have subsided to 5-7 ft in NW swell across
most of the area.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support
mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W over=20
the next couple of days. The next cold front will move across=20
the NW corner of the forecast area Sat night into Sun. A new set=20
of long-period NW swell will follow the front building seas up to
12 ft near 30N140W on Sun. Fresh to strong winds are also=20
forecast on either side of the front forecast to reach from=20
30N134W to 25N140W on Sun morning, and from 30N130W to 26N134W=20
on Sun evening. The front is expected to dissipate on Mon. The
pressure gradient between high pressure and a trough within the
ITCZ is expected to bring increasing winds and seas across the
waters from 13N to 17N between 117W and 125W.

$$
GR/Mahoney


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