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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220108185509.15F8E1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2022 18:55:08 +0000
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ABPW10 PGTW 081730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081730Z-090600ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081421ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.4S 173.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 173.3E, APPROXIMATELY
278 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 080716Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW CONCENTRATED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDS ORIENTED IN A NORTH-SOUTH ARC ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A
080948Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS A LARGE SWATH OF 30-
35 KNOT WINDS MIRRORING THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE LLCC WITH 20 KTS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN THE REMAINING
QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99P WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW
081430).
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 147.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY
137 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BOUGAINVILLE REEF, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING
THE LLC. A 080900Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, HOWEVER,
REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED CENTER WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. A 081131Z ASCAT-B
BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWS A SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH FAIR OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 90P WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN


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