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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
Message-ID: <20220108203235.3772F1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2022 20:32:35 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 081800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 082032 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 174.3E
AT 081800 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DEPRESSION MOVING EAST AT
ABOUT 08 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.  

WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAOUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD03F CENTRE EXPECT WINDS
UP TO 35
KNOTS IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.  

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC WITH CLOUD BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP ONTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. TD03F IS IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. 
TD03F CURRENTLY STEERED TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY 
OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS HAD A WRAP OF 0.4/0.5 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL WHICH YIELDS A
DT OF 2.5. 
MET AND PAT AGREE. THUS, FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 18.6S 175.4E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 19.0S 175.9E MOV ESE AT 04 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 19.4S 175.7E MOV SE AT 03 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 19.6S 175.3E MOV SE AT 02 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090200 UTC.


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