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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220108220114.B25E71C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2022 22:01:14 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/082200Z-090600ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081951ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08JAN22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3S 174.1E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAD
TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 082100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6S 173.3E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 147.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY
137 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BOUGAINVILLE REEF, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING
THE LLC. A 080900Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, HOWEVER,
REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED CENTER WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. A 081131Z ASCAT-B
BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWS A SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH FAIR OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 90P WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
WARNING STATUS.//
NNNN


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