Received-SPF: fail (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu does not designate 130.126.157.8 as permitted sender) client-ip=130.126.157.8;
From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Australia
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220109012604.D7CB11C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2022 01:26:04 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-To: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Sender: wx-tropl-request@lists.illinois.edu
Archived-At: <https://lists.illinois.edu/lists/arcsearch_id/wx-tropl/2022-01/20220109012604.D7CB11C0EEE%40weather.cod.edu>
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1641691569-64608-151"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1641691569-64608-151
Content-Type: text/plain


376 
AXAU21 ABRF 090125
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0125 UTC 09/01/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 147.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (245 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/12HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm (110 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  09/0600: 14.0S 146.9E:     045 (085):  030  (055): 1004
+12:  09/1200: 13.9S 146.4E:     055 (100):  030  (055): 1005
+18:  09/1800: 14.0S 145.7E:     060 (105):  035  (065): 1003
+24:  10/0000: 14.0S 145.1E:     060 (110):  040  (075): 1004
+36:  10/1200: 14.1S 144.0E:     070 (130):  040  (075): 1004
+48:  11/0000: 14.1S 142.0E:     085 (160):  030  (055): 1004
+60:  11/1200: 14.2S 140.2E:     110 (205):  040  (075): 1002
+72:  12/0000: 14.1S 138.3E:     110 (205):  050  (095):  999
+96:  13/0000: 14.8S 135.4E:     130 (235):  060  (110):  996
+120: 14/0000: 15.4S 134.4E:     155 (290):  040  (075):  993
REMARKS:
Tropical low [10U] is a small system that has shown rapid development over the
last 6-12 hours. 

Position was analysed using microwave and satellite imagery, with gmi/ssmis at
20:10 UTC giving a good fix. Curvature is increasing for 10U, with Dvorak
giving DT=2.5. FT/CI are also set at 2.5. Intensity set at 30 knots (10
minute). 

The tropical low is under moderate shear, which is not forecast to ease, but
with SST above 29 degrees development is expected to continue. Given the small
size of 10U and the rapid organisation observed overnight, intensification
could be rapid.  

Environmental conditions become more favourable once the system reaches the
Gulf of Carpentaria with SSTs above 30C. From Wednesday the shear decreases and
upper divergence increases and rapid intensification becomes more likely.  

There continues to be significant variation between model runs regarding the
long term track, with some scenarios indicating the system recurves over the
Gulf waters and therefore maintains intensity. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0730 UTC.


------------=_1641691569-64608-151
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
MIME-Version: 1.0

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1641691569-64608-151--