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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2022 03:51:15 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 090350
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jan 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across
the Tehuantepec region is expected on Sun night when strong=20
north winds will surge southward from southeastern Mexico across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale conditions with winds of 35-40 kt=20
are expected by early Mon afternoon and lasting through Thu=20
night. Seas are forecast to peak up to 11-17 ft with this gap-=20
wind event on Tue. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!updqBCa68_IIcUPEfJzjd0wEcM5bZcgxMIJ2Dq2X6DzYpSmm8mgd6Fw-sIz1SnY4W=
hXbcE4z$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1012 mb over=20
Colombia near 10N75W southwestward to 06N85W and to 06N96W,=20
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions=20
to the ITCZ to 08N105W to 08N112W and to 09N117W, where it pauses
east of a couple of troughs. It resumes at 09N131W to beyond the
area at 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection seen within 120=20
nm north of the ITCZ between 115W-117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

Ridging currently dominates the offshore forecast waters. A weak
cold front extends from low pressure of 1015 mb over southern=20
California southwestward to 30N120W and westward to 30N128W.=20
Gentle northwest to north winds are behind the front east of 120W
along with seas of 3-5 ft due to a west to northwest swell.=20
Light to gentle northwest to north winds were observed within=20
the latest scatterometer pass. Seas are 3-5 ft, except in the=20
Gulf of California where seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the next several=20
days. The next northwest swell event will reach the waters north
of Punta Eugenia late on Tue, building seas to 8-10 ft. Strong=20
high pressure over the southwestern United States is forecast to=20
bring fresh to locally strong NW winds over the central and=20
southern Gulf of California on Mon and Mon night. On Tue, the=20
fresh to strong NW winds are expected to be confined to the far=20
northern part of the Gulf, while moderate to fresh northwest=20
winds will be over the remainder of the Gulf. Fresh to strong=20
north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night into=20
early Thu.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region.
Seas there are in the 6-8 ft range. Light to gentle winds are=20
noted elsewhere north of the Monsoon Trough, with gentle to=20
moderate winds south of the Monsoon Trough. Seas are 3-5 ft
due to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support=20
the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
through mid-week. Seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region are forecast to propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador on Tue and Tue night, building seas to
8-12 ft. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of
the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure covers the area north of about 17N. A weak cold=20
front has pushed southward, and extends from low pressure over=20
southern California southwestward to 30N120W and westward to=20
30N128W. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are behind=20
the front west of 120W, and gentle northwest to north winds are=20
are elsewhere behind this front. Seas behind the front 5-6 ft=20
west of 121W and 3-5 ft east of 121W due to a west to northwest=20
swell. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted along the=20
southern periphery of the ridge. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range=20
across most of the area.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support
mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W over=20
the next couple of days. A cold front that is just northwest of=20
the area will move across the northwest forecast waters through=20
Sun night while weakening. A new set of long-period northwest=20
swell will follow the front building seas up to 13 ft near=20
30N140W on Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast=20
on either side of the front forecast to reach from near 30N134W=20
to 25N136W on Sun afternoon, and from 30N131W to 25N133W on Sun=20
night. The front is expected to dissipate on Mon. The pressure=20
gradient between high pressure and a trough in the tropical=20
region that is analyzed from 15N117W to 10N120W is expected to=20
lead to increasing winds and seas across the waters from 13N to=20
17N between 117W and 127W from Sun night through Mon, at which=20
time the trade winds west of 125W from 12N to 21N will increase=20
to fresh speeds through at least Tue as the gradient over that=20
part of the area tightens. The combined result of these winds=20
increasing with the aforementioned northwest swell is expected=20
to build seas to around 11 ft over a good portion of the western=20
half of the area starting Mon. Scattered showers and possible=20
isolated thunderstorms are noted over and near the trough from=20
09N to 15N between 117W-121W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are seen east of the trough from 12N to 15N between 112W-117W=20
and within 30 nm of line from 12N102W to 12N107W. Another trough=20
is analyzed from 14N127W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 10N128W=20
and to 07N130W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60=20
nm of the low. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere near the=20
low and trough.

$$
Aguirre


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