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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
Message-ID: <20220109081528.A64D31C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2022 08:15:28 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 090600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 090815 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 176.3E
AT 090600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DEPRESSION MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 06
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.  
WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAOUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD03F CENTRE EXPECT WINDS
UP TO 35
KNOTS IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.  
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC WITH CLOUD BANDS CONTINUING
TO
WRAP ONTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDUCED IN
RADIAL VERTICAL EXTENT WITH SOME CLOUD TOP WARMING. DRY AIR HAS ALSO
INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. TD03F IS IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. TD03F
CURRENTLY STEERED TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
MID LEVEL HIGH LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A 0.4 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL WHICH YIELDS A
DT OF 2.5. 
MET AND PAT IS AT 2.5. THUS, FT BASED ON MET YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 19.7S 176.8E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 20.1S 175.6E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 19.8S 174.0E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 20.0S 173.6E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.


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