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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
Message-ID: <20220109133916.95F971C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2022 13:39:16 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 091200 CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 091339 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 177.1E
AT 091200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.  
WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAOUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD03F CENTRE EXPECT WINDS
UP TO 35
KNOTS IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.  
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC WITH CLOUD BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP ONTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS. 
TD03F IS IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE. TD03F CURRENTLY STEERED TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL HIGH LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION. 
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A 0.4 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL WHICH YIELDS A
DT OF 2.5. 
MET AND PAT IS AT 2.5. THUS, FT BASED ON MET YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 20.0S 176.8E MOV SSW AT 03 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 20.2S 175.9E MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 20.3S 175.0E MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 20.9S 175.0E MOV SW AT 03 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 092000 UTC.


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