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Subject: Australia
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Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2022 19:05:01 +0000
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016 
AXAU21 ABRF 091904
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1904 UTC 09/01/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tiffany
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 144.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west (264 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  10/0000: 14.1S 144.4E:     035 (065):  050  (095):  989
+12:  10/0600: 14.2S 143.9E:     050 (095):  050  (095):  989
+18:  10/1200: 14.2S 143.1E:     060 (115):  045  (085):  991
+24:  10/1800: 14.1S 142.1E:     070 (130):  035  (065):  995
+36:  11/0600: 13.9S 140.4E:     085 (155):  040  (075):  996
+48:  11/1800: 13.9S 138.5E:     095 (175):  050  (095):  994
+60:  12/0600: 14.1S 136.5E:     100 (185):  065  (120):  986
+72:  12/1800: 14.4S 134.8E:     105 (195):  050  (095):  984
+96:  13/1800: 15.0S 132.7E:     140 (255):  030  (055): 1000
+120: 14/1800: 15.4S 132.5E:     180 (330):  030  (055):  999
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Tiffany remaining at category 2 intensity. 

Position was analysed using animated enhanced infra-red imagery. Convection
continues to develop and wrap around the centre with very tight banding. Dvorak
analysis is based on a curved band pattern with 0.85 wrap giving DT 3.5. MET is
3.0 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is adjusted up to 3.0. Final T 3.5, and
CI is set to 3.5. 

The CIMSS analysed deep layer wind shear has decreased slightly to 15 knots as
the upper level ridge is deformed to the north by an upper trough passing to
the south. This same feature has improved upper poleward outflow from the
system.Fanning cirrus has become evident on the eastern side. 

SST is above 29 degrees Celsius. Given the small size of Tiffany,
intensification could continue, however the circulation will start to feel the
effects of the coastline within the next 6 hours and thus the current intensity
is forecast to persist through to landfall. 

Tiffany will continue to be steered westward by a mid-level ridge to the south
for the next several days. Late in the week another upper trough will weaken
the ridge. The system will slow and possibly recurve to the southeast. This is
likely to be after landfall on the Northern Territory coast, however
considerable uncertainty remains with this timing. Otherwise, conditions are
broadly favourable for development as the system tracks across the Gulf of
Carpentaria and the forecast development to a category 3 system in the western
Gulf remains credible.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/0130 UTC.


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