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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Part 1 Of 2 
Message-ID: <20220109203107.352B61C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2022 20:31:07 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 091800 CCA
PART 1 OF 2
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 092030 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CODY CENTRE [995HPA], CATEGORY, 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.3S 177.3E AT 091800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR
AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.  
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC WITH CLOUD BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP ONTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH WITH CONVECTION INCREASED IN RADIAL
VERTICAL EXTENT WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING. 
CODY IS IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE.
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A 0.5/0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL WHICH YIELDS
A DT OF 3.0. 
MET AND PAT AGREE. THUS, FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 20.6S 176.6E MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 20.7S 175.6E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 21.0S 175.1E MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 22.1S 175.5E MOV SW AT 03 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE


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