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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220110022001.A45371C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2022 02:20:01 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 100219
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A building ridge across the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico will
support the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region.=20
Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass late=20
tonight, increasing to gale force by Mon afternoon. Winds are=20
forecast to peak around 40 kt by Mon night, with seas building to
up to 16 to 18 ft. Gale conditions are forecast to likely=20
persist through Thu night. A swath of fresh to strong NE to E=20
winds with seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by this gap wind=20
event, will propagate well to the SW of the Tehuantepec region=20
reaching beyond 100W on Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!oWcYzq74vdLW6TfNFfDU-ejXx0zMmWwHPr1-381U433ThUv4CsTYWE6L1XXHdLVny=
ot4OqQx$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 06N90W. The ITCZ=20
continues from 06N90W to 04N98W to 08N113W, then resumes west of
two surface troughs from 10N123W to 11N128W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N
between 103W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 12N to 15N between 117W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds with seas of 4 to
6 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds are in the Gulf of California=20
where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Elsewhere across the=20
offshore forecast waters of Mexico, light to gentle winds prevail
with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the next several=20
days. NW swell will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia late=20
on Tue through mid-week. Strong high pressure over the=20
southwestern United States will bring an increase in winds and=20
seas across most of the Gulf of California beginning tonight.=20
Expect fresh to strong NW winds and building seas. Fresh to=20
strong north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night=20
into early Thu.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong=20
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are=20
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except pulsing to
moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds=20
are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, mainly due=20
to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the area will=20
support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of=20
Papagayo region likely through Fri. Seas generated in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are forecast to propagate across the offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador on Tue through Wed, building seas=20
to 8 to 12 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will be present=20
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the=20
Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail south of the=20
trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure at 1024 mb is located near 30N122W with a ridge
extending to the southeast and southwest. A weakening cold front
is west of the high from 30N140W to 26N137W. Large NW swell of 8
to 12 ft is arriving behind the front, somewhat lagging behind.=20
Isolated to scattered showers are near the front axis. A surface
trough is located southeast of the front from 26N126W to=20
20N129W. Light to gentle winds dominate the waters north of 22N,=20
with seas of 4 to 6 ft ahead of the front. Two surface troughs
are embedded in the ITCZ, an eastern one from 13N113W to 06N115W,
and a western one from 13N121W to 07N122W. Associated convection
is described above. Moderate to fresh winds are north of the ITCZ
to 22N, highest near the troughs. Mainly moderate SE winds are
noted south of the ITCZ. Seas of 5 to 7 ft, locally 8 ft, in NW
swell are across the waters south of 22N.

For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will dissipate=20
by Mon. The set of NW swell following the front will continue to
propagate southeast, building seas up to 13 to 14 ft through=20
late Mon, with the leading edge of seas of 8 ft or greater
reaching to near 120W Tue. Another set of large NW swell is=20
forecast to reach the NW waters Tue night and Wed. The pressure=20
gradient between the high pressure over the northern forecast=20
waters and the eastern surface trough is expected to lead to=20
increasing winds and seas across the waters near the eastern
trough which will elongate from north to south while lifting
northward through mid-week with the trough dissipating by the end
of the week. Another cold front is expected to approach the far
northwest corner of the area late on Tue. This front is likely=20
to be preceded by fresh to strong south to southwest winds, and=20
followed by a large set of northwest swell. The front will
significantly weaken once it pushes southeast of 30N140W Wed
through the end of the week while the associated NW swell lingers
into the upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky


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