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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220110144103.5920F1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2022 14:41:03 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 101440
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A building ridge across the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico will
support the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region.=20
Strong winds funneling through the Chivela Pass are forecast to=20
increase to gale force by this afternoon. Winds are forecast to=20
peak around 40 kt tonight and again Tue night, with seas building
to around 15 ft. Gale conditions are forecast to persist through
Thu night with the potential for a brief lull below gale force=20
Wed afternoon and early evening. A swath of fresh to strong NE to
E winds with seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by this gap wind
event, will propagate well to the SW of the Tehuantepec region=20
reaching beyond 100W on Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!pSBDagpzr511j3yK6ae-jlpEbA3f75W0wAK375k02k4wVElSDWNP0O-Jnv2wkOUZv=
5oQ3y91$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 04N99W. The ITCZ=20
continues from 04N99W to 08N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate=20
and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between=20
105W and 125W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 4=20
to 6 ft. Fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail in the Gulf of=20
California. Some of these winds are filtering through Baja=20
California Peninsula passages into the waters west of Baja=20
California Sur. Seas in the Gulf of California are in the 4-5 ft
range. Elsewhere across the offshore forecast waters of Mexico,=20
light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will increase to gale force this afternoon and=20
persist through Thu night, with a brief lull possible Wed=20
afternoon and evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds will=20
prevail across the Gulf of California. The fresh to strong winds=20
will become confined to the central and southern Gulf by mid-=20
week, then diminish by the end of the week. NW swell will reach=20
the waters north of Punta Eugenia late on Tue through mid- week.=20
Fresh to strong north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed
night into early Thu.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong=20
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are=20
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to=20
fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are south of=20
the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, mainly due to a south to=20
southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the area will=20
support continued pulsing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over
the Gulf of Papagayo region likely through Fri. Seas generated=20
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are forecast to propagate across the=20
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador on Tue through Wed,=20
building seas to 8 to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will be=20
present elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh=20
in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail south=20
of the trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure at 1026 mb is located near 35N126W with a ridge=20
extending to the southeast and southwest. NW swell with seas of=20
8 to 11 ft is over the NW waters. Light to gentle winds dominate
the waters north of about 24N, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Moderate=20
to fresh winds are north of the ITCZ to 22N. Mainly gentle to=20
moderate SE winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Seas of 5 to 7 ft,
locally 8 ft, in NW swell are across the waters south of 22N.

For the forecast, The set of NW swell will continue to propagate
southeast, building seas up to 13 to 14 ft through tonight, with
the leading edge of seas of 8 ft or greater reaching to near=20
125W by early Tue. Another set of large NW swell is forecast to=20
reach the NW waters Tue night and Wed. The pressure gradient=20
between the high pressure over the northern forecast waters and=20
a surface trough is expected to lead to increasing winds and=20
seas across the waters near 120W. A cold front is expected to=20
approach the far northwest corner of the area late on Tue. This=20
front is forecast to be preceded by fresh to strong south to=20
southwest winds, and followed by a large set of northwest swell.=20
The front will significantly weaken once it pushes southeast of=20
30N140W Wed through the end of the week while the associated NW=20
swell lingers into the upcoming weekend.

$$
AL


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