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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: At: 1857 Utc 11/01/2022 
Message-ID: <20220111185757.AC7A21C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2022 18:57:57 +0000
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AXAU01 ADRM 111857
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1857 UTC 11/01/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tiffany
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.7S
Longitude: 137.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (275 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/18HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS  
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm (205 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  12/0000: 14.7S 136.0E:     040 (070):  050  (095):  990
+12:  12/0600: 14.7S 135.0E:     050 (095):  045  (085):  989
+18:  12/1200: 14.8S 134.1E:     065 (115):  035  (065):  995
+24:  12/1800: 14.9S 133.1E:     075 (140):  030  (060):  999
+36:  13/0600: 15.1S 131.3E:     095 (170):  030  (050): 1002
+48:  13/1800: 15.2S 130.1E:     105 (190):  025  (045): 1002
+60:  14/0600: 15.6S 129.5E:     115 (215):  025  (045): 1002
+72:  14/1800: 16.2S 129.2E:     140 (255):  025  (045): 1002
+96:  15/1800: 17.7S 129.9E:     195 (360):  025  (045): 1002
+120: 16/1800: 19.6S 131.7E:     260 (480):  025  (045): 1004
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Tiffany is passing to the south of Groote Eylandt and remains
at category 1 strength. 
 
Position was analysed using Gove radar, with the low level centre displaced
approximately 0.3 degrees to the east of the elevated circulation apparent on
radar. This has been confirmed by a recent (1622UTC) AMSR pass with a similar
displacement between the 85GHz and 36GHz centres. 

The IR satellite signature of Tiffany is being disrupted by the upper outflow
of a massive convective outbreak to the west over the Top End. Nevertheless,
Dvorak analysis was based on a shear pattern giving a DT of 3.0 based on a
shear pattern. MET/PAT are unavailable. FT/CI are both 3.0. Current SATCON
estimate is 54 knots (1 minute mean) which is at the upper end of all the
consensus members. CIMSS and NESDIS ADT CIs were 3.4 and 3.3 respectively.
Intensity is maintained at 45 knots (10 minute mean). Marginal gales have
persisted at Centre Island, 65 nautical miles to the SSW of the estimated
system centre. 

At 1500 UTC CIMSS analysed shear had decreased to around 15 knots. Upper
divergence is strong. SSTs are over 30C. Intensification is forecast to
continue, with the system reaching 50 knots prior to land fall. Intensification
to 60 knots cannot be ruled out, given the strong divergence near the system.  

 This system will continue to be steered westward by a mid-level ridge to the
south during Wednesday. By Thursday, when the system will be over land, an
upper trough will weaken the ridge. Steering becomes more uncertain at this
point, with some guidance recurving the system to the southeast. There are also
a few model scenarios that continue to move the system westward into the
Bonaparte Gulf. On Friday, with the mid-level ridge strengthening to the east a
majority of guidance takes or continues to take the system south. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0130 UTC.


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