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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A15 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
Message-ID: <20220111195028.3E5C41C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2022 19:50:28 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 111800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 111950 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CODY [CO-DEE] CENTRE 981HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8S
173.8E AT 111800 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 8 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD AS CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AND
TIGHTLY WRAPPING ONTO LLCC. CODY IS IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. 
CODY IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN, THAT IS DG EYE WITH OW SURROUND
WHICH YIELDS A DT OF 3.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T3.5/4.0/D1.0/24HRS.

ORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 23.0S 174.2E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 24.4S 175.1E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 25.6S 176.0E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 26.8S 176.7E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CODY [CO-DEE] WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 120200 UTC.


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