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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220111202355.A55681C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2022 20:23:55 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 112023
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
2205 UTC Tue Jan 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between=20=20
high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre=20
Mountains in Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting gale=20
force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are peaking
around 40 kt, with seas building to around 16 ft. Gale conditions
are forecast to persist through Wed morning with the potential=20
for another round of gales Thu night. A swath of fresh to strong=20
NE to E winds with seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by this gap
wind event, will propagate well to the SW of the Tehuantepec=20
region reaching beyond 105W today. Please read the latest NWS=20
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at=20
website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2=
.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!phqg1La3n1dcuhNU4rG9Ugwj-o7TdiSwdoJDfRgyAA23qNwdjTtvvItll=
E6WUj2HjkDhoQWH$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 05N89W. The ITCZ=20
continues from 05N89W to 08N117W, then resumes west of a surface
trough from 08N124W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 06N between 82W and 99W, and N of 07N between=20
112W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja=20
California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds and=20
seas of 3 to 5 ft. Fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail in the=20
Gulf of California. Some of these winds are filtering through=20
Baja California Peninsula passages into the adjacent waters west
of Baja California. Seas in the Gulf of California are in the 4=20
to 7 ft range. Elsewhere across the offshore forecast waters of=20
Mexico, light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, gale force will persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through Wed morning, then return on Thu night. Fresh
to strong northerly winds will prevail across the Gulf of=20
California. The fresh to strong winds will become confined to the
central and southern Gulf by mid-week, then diminish throughout=20
by the end of the week. NW swell will reach the waters north of=20
Punta Eugenia tonight through mid-week. Fresh to strong north=20
winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night into early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong=20
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are=20
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to=20
fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are south of=20
the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft outside of the Gulf of=20
Papagayo region, mainly due to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will=20
support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of=20
Papagayo region through Sat night. Seas generated in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec are forecast to propagate across the offshore waters=20
of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed, building seas to 8 to=20
12 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north=20
of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama.=20
Light to gentle winds will prevail south of the trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb is located north of the area near=20
35N127W with ridging prevailing across the waters north of 20N.=20
NW swell with seas of 8 to 11 ft is across the waters north of=20
10N and west of 120W, with the highest seas near 28N129W. Light=20
to gentle winds prevail north of 27N between 127W and 134W under=20
the ridging, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of=20
26N. A surface trough extends from 19N115W to 12N120W. The=20
pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting=20
an area of strong to near-gale winds and seas ranging from 8 to=20
10 ft east of the trough. Moderate to fresh trades prevail=20
elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 26N. Mainly gentle to moderate SE=20
winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Seas of 5 to 7 ft, locally to=20
8 ft, in NW swell are across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue to propagate
southeast through the evening hours. Another set of large NW=20
swell is forecast to reach the NW waters tonight and Wed. The=20
pressure gradient between high pressure over the northern=20
forecast waters and the surface trough will maintain fresh to=20
strong winds and seas near 8 ft over the waters near the trough.=20
The trough will lift northward through mid-week before dissipating
by the end of the week. A cold front is expected to approach the
far northwest corner of the area tonight. This front is forecast
to be preceded by fresh to strong south to southwest winds, and=20
followed by a large set of northwest swell. The front will weaken
rapidly once it pushes southeast of 30N140W on Wed through the=20
end of the week while the associated NW swell lingers into the=20
upcoming weekend.

$$
ERA


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