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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: At: 0117 Utc 12/01/2022 
Message-ID: <20220112011741.95D041C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2022 01:17:41 +0000
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AXAU01 ADRM 120117
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0117 UTC 12/01/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tiffany
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.6S
Longitude: 135.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (274 deg)
Speed of Movement: 15 knots (27 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  12/0600: 14.6S 134.5E:     040 (070):  030  (055):  994
+12:  12/1200: 14.7S 133.5E:     050 (090):  030  (055):  996
+18:  12/1800: 14.7S 132.5E:     055 (105):  030  (055):  998
+24:  13/0000: 14.8S 131.5E:     065 (120):  030  (055):  999
+36:  13/1200: 14.9S 129.9E:     075 (135):  025  (045): 1000
+48:  14/0000: 15.0S 129.2E:     090 (165):  025  (045): 1000
+60:  14/1200: 15.7S 128.7E:     105 (190):  025  (045): 1000
+72:  15/0000: 16.5S 128.4E:     125 (235):  025  (045): 1000
+96:  16/0000: 18.5S 128.8E:     165 (310):  025  (045): 1001
+120: 17/0000: 20.9S 130.2E:     220 (410):  025  (045): 1000
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Tiffany has made landfall near Port Roper as a category 1
system. 
 
Position was analysed using VIS satellite imagery and nearby observations.
Dvorak analysis was based on curved band pattern giving a DT of 2.5. MET/PAT
were both 3.0, and FT/CI=3.0.

SATCON estimate is 65 knots and AiDT was estimating 53 knots (1 minute mean).
CIMSS and NESDIS ADT CIs were 3.3 and 3.1 respectively. Intensity was estimated
to 40 knots (10 minute mean). 

Rapid movement of Tiffany had brought it too close to land during the night,
hence it struggled to intensify any further. The massive blow up of deep
convection over Top End yesterday evening and formation of a MCS may have
contributed to displacing the upper level ventilation away from the system. 

The system will continue to be steered westward by a mid-level ridge to the
south. By Thursday, an upper trough will weaken the ridge. Steering becomes
more uncertain at this point, with some guidance recurving the system to the
southeast. There are also a few model scenarios that continue to move the
system westward into the Bonaparte Gulf, however the probability of this
occurring is very low at this stage. On Friday, with the mid-level ridge
strengthening to the east a majority of guidance takes or continues to take the
system south. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system.


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