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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220112014028.210751C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2022 01:40:28 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 120140
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between=20=20
high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre=20
Mountains in Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting gale=20
force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are peaking
around 40 kt, with seas to around 16 ft. Gale conditions are=20
forecast to persist through Wed morning, then be near gale force=20
thereafter through early Fri. A swath of fresh to strong NE to E=20
winds with seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by this gap wind=20
event, will propagate well to the SW of the Tehuantepec region=20
reaching beyond 105W through Thu. Another gale force wind event=20
is possible Sun and Sun night. Please read the latest NWS High=20
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!vQ340LNLVrKB2-9qK8IHVgIUmtgS3XNOvDR7jxxd2MBaSWfpE0TPCpZlL5GZndGkz=
dmDExkQ$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 10N76W to 05N86W. The ITCZ continues=20
from 05N86W to 04N100W to 09N114W, then resumes west of two
surface troughs from 08N125W to 06N140W. No significant=20
convection with the monsoon trough and ITCZ is noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A weak surface ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N=20
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong NW to N winds=20
prevail in the Gulf of California. Some of these winds are=20
filtering through Baja California Peninsula passages into the=20
adjacent waters west of Baja California. Seas in the Gulf of=20
California are in the 4 to 7 ft range. Elsewhere across the=20
offshore forecast waters of Mexico, light to gentle winds prevail
with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, gale force will persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through Wed morning, then will be near gale
thereafter through early Fri. Another gale force wind event is
possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. Fresh to=20
strong northerly winds in the Gulf of California will become=20
confined to the central and southern Gulf Wed, then diminish=20
throughout by the end of the week. NW swell will reach the waters
north of Punta Eugenia tonight through Thu. Fresh to strong=20
north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night into=20
early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong=20
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are=20
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to=20
fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are south of=20
the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft outside of the Gulf of=20
Papagayo region, mainly due to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will=20
support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of=20
Papagayo region through Sat, then again Sun night. Seas generated
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are forecast to propagate across the=20
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed,=20
building seas to 8 to 12 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will be=20
present elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh=20
in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds will=20
prevail south of the trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure at 1026 mb is located north of the area near
36N126W, with ridging prevailing across the waters north of the=20
ITCZ and west of about 125W. A cold front is just west of 30N140W
with fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of it into the far=20
northwest waters. NW swell with seas of 8 to 11 ft is across the=20
waters north of about 07N and west of 120W, with a reinforcing=20
set arriving ahead of the cold front, seas to around 12 ft now=20
near 30N140W. A surface trough is analyzed from 20N115W to=20
11N121W, with another surface trough analyzed from 18N114W to
08N121W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is=20
noted from 11N to 27N between 110W and 121W. Fresh to strong=20
winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted from 17N to 23N between=20
115W and 122W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere north
of the ITCZ and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds=20
elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open=20
waters.

For the forecast, the set of large, reinforcing NW swell is=20
forecast to spread across the NW waters tonight and Wed. The=20
cold front is expected to approach the far northwest corner of=20
the area tonight with the fresh to strong S to SW winds
continuing ahead of it. The front will weaken rapidly once it=20
pushes southeast of 30N140W on Wed through the end of the week=20
while the associated NW swell lingers into the upcoming weekend.
Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the=20
northern forecast waters and the surface troughs will maintain=20
fresh to strong winds and seas near 8 ft over the waters near the
trough. The troughs will merge while lifting northward through=20
mid- week before dissipating by the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky


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