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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A16 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
Message-ID: <20220112015349.6D8CB1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2022 01:53:49 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 120000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 120153 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CODY [CO-DEE] CENTRE 971HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.8S 173.9E AT 120000 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR
AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.  

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 130000 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, 
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH EYE CLEARLY DISCERNABLE ON
HIMAWARI-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. CODY IS IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND  27
DEGREES CELSIUS.
CODY IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL ANIT-CYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. ON THE CURRENT PROJECTED MOVEMENT CODY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT HEADS TOWARDS HIGH
SHEAR AND COOLER SSTs. 
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE AND DG SURROUND
WHICH YIELDED E no# of 4.5. EYE IS ELONGATED THUS INITIAL 0.5
SUBTRACTED  WHICH BROUGHT CF no# TO 4.0 DUE TO BANDING, 0.5 WAS ADDED
AGAIN TO CF WHICH YIELDED A DT 4.5. 
MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

ORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 24.1S 174.6E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 25.4S 175.5E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 26.6S 176.4E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 27.5S 177.0E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CODY [CO-DEE] WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 120800 UTC.


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