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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220112070718.DC3FA1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2022 07:07:18 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 120707
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between=20=20
high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre=20
Mountains in Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting gale=20
force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are peaking
around 40 kt, with seas to around 16 ft. Gale conditions are=20
forecast to persist through this morning, then be near gale=20
force thereafter through early Fri. A swath of fresh to strong NE
to E winds with seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by this gap=20
wind event, will propagate well to the SW of the Tehuantepec=20
region reaching beyond 105W through Thu. Another gale force wind=20
event is possible Sun and Sun night. Please read the latest NWS=20
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at=20
website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2=
.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!sOs3gwIWbIEBocmb6yT23nMS6JdCGIwd9JPJrFtl_Dtjl8Q-amD2zq4B_=
ccvY8Aw6kYqjYMl$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1012 mb low pressure near 10N75W
to 05N87W. The ITCZ continues from 05N87W to 05N107W, then
resumes southwest of two surface troughs from 08N128W to 05N140W.
No significant convection is noted with the monsoon trough and
ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

A weak surface ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California, with a pair of surface troughs located along
and beyond the offshore waters boundaries. Plentiful convection,
as described above, is being advected northward from the deep=20
tropics toward the Baja California peninsula. The ridge is
supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft, however seas are building to 6 to 8 ft offshore of Baja
California Norte in NW swell. Fresh to strong NW to N winds=20
prevail in the central and southern Gulf of California, with
moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the northern Gulf of
California. Some of these winds are filtering through Baja=20
California Peninsula passages into the adjacent waters west of=20
Baja California. Seas in the Gulf of California are in the 3 to
6 ft range. Elsewhere across the offshore forecast waters of=20
Mexico, light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, gale force will persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through this morning, then will be near gale=20
thereafter through early Fri. Another gale force wind event is=20
possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. Fresh to=20
strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf of=20
California will diminish by tonight, then return Thu through Fri.=20
NW swell will continue to propagate southeast across the waters
offshore of Baja California through Thu. Fresh to strong north=20
winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night into early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong=20
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are=20
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to=20
fresh in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Light
to gentle winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5
ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo region, mainly due to a south
to southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will=20
support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of=20
Papagayo region through Sat, then again Sun night. Seas generated
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are forecast to propagate across the=20
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through today,=20
building seas to 8 to 12 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will be=20
present elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh=20
in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds will=20
prevail south of the trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A cold front is entering the area near 30N140W with fresh to
strong SW winds along with a set of reinforcing NW swell just
ahead of it, seas to 12 ft near 30N140W. Otherwise, high is
pressure located north of the area near with ridging prevailing=20
across the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ and west of
about 125W. Old NW swell with seas of 8 to 11 ft is across the=20
waters north of about 06N and west of 120W. A pair of surface
troughs are analyzed in the central open waters with an eastern
trough from 21N114W to 13N111W, and a western trough from 20N117W
to 09N124W. Associated convection is described above. Fresh to=20
strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted from 14N to 23N=20
between 115W and 121W. Moderate to fresh trades, locally strong
near 10N138W, are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of=20
120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft=20
prevail elsewhere across the open waters.

For the forecast, the set of large, reinforcing NW swell is=20
forecast to spread across the NW waters today. The cold front is
forecast to weaken rapidly once it pushes southeast of 30N140W=20
today through the end of the week, while the associated NW swell
lingers into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, the pressure=20
gradient between high pressure over the northern forecast waters=20
and the surface troughs will maintain fresh to strong winds and=20
seas around 8 ft over the waters near the trough. The troughs=20
will merge while lifting northward through Thu before=20
dissipating by the end of the week. Fairly tranquil marine
conditions are forecast across the waters this weekend as the
pressure gradient slackens allowing for trades to diminish and as
the NW swell gradually decays.

$$
Lewitsky


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