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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A17 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
Message-ID: <20220112081945.B8AEC1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2022 08:19:45 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 120600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 120819 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CODY [CO-DEE] CENTRE 974HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.6S 174.2E AT 120600 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR
AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.  

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 121800 UTC. DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS BY 130600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                         AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT 
                         AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT 
                         AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH EYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED ON
HIMAWARI-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. CODY IS IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE.
SST AROUND  26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
CODY IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL ANIT-CYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. ON THE CURRENT PROJECTED MOVEMENT CODY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS IT HEADS TOWARDS HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SSTs. 
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN WITH OW SURROUND
WHICH YIELDED CF no# OF 3.5 AND NO BANDING FEATURE, THUS YIELDED DT
OF 3.5. 
PT AGREE AND MET AT 4.0. THUS, FT BASED ON MET YIELDING
T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS.

ORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 25.0S 175.0E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 26.3S 175.8E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 27.4S 176.2E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 28.2S 176.6E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CODY [CO-DEE] WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 121400 UTC.


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