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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220112114129.71F9F1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2022 11:41:29 +0000
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784 
AWIO20 FMEE 121133

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/12 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin has a near equatorial trough (NEET) branch east of 70oE at 7oS.

On the western side of the basin, a trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present until 70oE feeding the Mozambique Channel and promoting a large area of low pressure near Madagascar, within the present monsoon trough at 9S between 50E and 70E, descending to 17S in the channel.

The convective activity is mainly present:

- over the center of the Mozanbique channel at the convergence of flows.

- in the convergence line west of the Mascarene Islands, which is organized around the low pressure along the east coast of Madagascar.

In the Mozambique Channel, no suspicious area is currently visible in the monsoon trough.

East of Madagascar, on today's satellite images, there is a closed circulation of low layers completely exposed around 21.8oS/49.3E. This minimum is also visible on this morning's HY-2C passes, with winds estimated around 10-15kt. In the next few days, it will slowly move southward, then southeastward without really encountering conducive environmental conditions for its intensification and then disappear.

Note however, that on the eastern part of this large area of low pressure, a northerly flow is feeding a potentially significant rainstorm near or over the Mascarene Islands at the end of the week.

Finally, over the extreme east of the basin, there is a low risk of Tropical Storm formation near 90S from Saturday.

Consequently, for the next 5 days, there is a  low risk of tropical storm formation over the extreme east of the basin from Saturday.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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