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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220112144723.CDD7A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2022 14:47:23 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 121447
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between=20=20
high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre=20
Mountains in Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting gale=20
force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas to=20
around 14 ft. Gale conditions are forecast to persist through=20
this morning, then be near gale force thereafter through early=20
Fri. A swath of fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas of 8 ft=20
or greater, generated by this gap wind event, will propagate well
to the SW of the Tehuantepec region reaching beyond 105W through
Thu. Another gale force wind event is possible Sun and Sun=20
night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by=20
the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!pYKNgdmt64cnXpVNS-3NO4Cuc96H_A40v2smwPIpvcVy6sO3ggzbunousojgVOX2d=
cvee9tZ$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 04N82W. The ITCZ=20
continues from 04N82W to 04N100W to 06N111W, then resumes from=20
08N132W to 05N140W. No significant convection is noted with the=20
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

Abundant moisture, is being advected northward from the deep=20
tropics toward the Baja California peninsula enhancing=20
convection across the waters from Cabo Corrientes northward.=20
Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the Baja=20
California peninsula. NW swell has propagated into the waters=20
west of Baja California Norte, building seas to 7-9 ft. Seas west
of Baja California Sur are in the 5-6 ft range. Fresh to strong=20
NW to N winds prevail in the central and southern Gulf of=20
California, with moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the northern=20
Gulf of California. Some of these winds are filtering through=20
Baja California Peninsula passages into the adjacent waters west=20
of Baja California. Seas in the Gulf of California are in the 3=20
to 6 ft range. Elsewhere across the offshore forecast waters of=20
Mexico, light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, gale force will persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through this morning, then will be near gale
thereafter through early Fri. Another gale force wind event is
possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. Fresh to
strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf of
California will diminish by tonight, then return Thu through
Fri. NW swell will continue to propagate southeast across the
waters offshore of Baja California through Thu. Fresh to strong
north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night into
early Thu.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong=20
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are=20
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to=20
fresh in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Light
to gentle winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5
ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo region, mainly due to a south
to southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will=20
continue to support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the=20
Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat, then again Sun night. Seas=20
generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are forecast to propagate=20
across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through=20
today, building seas to 8 to 12 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will
be present elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to=20
fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds=20
will prevail south of the trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N138W to=20
28N140W. The front has ushered in a fresh set of NW swell, with=20
seas to 12 ft near 30N140W. Otherwise, high is pressure located=20
north of the area near with ridging prevailing across the=20
remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ and west of about 125W.
Subsiding NW swell, with seas of 8 to 11 ft, is across the=20
waters north of about 06N and west of 120W. A pair of surface=20
troughs are analyzed in the central open waters with an eastern=20
trough from 20N115W to 13N114W, and a western trough from=20
21N119W TO 09N127W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted in the vicinity of the troughs. Fresh to=20
strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted from 17N to 22N=20
between 115W and 120W. Moderate to fresh trades, locally strong=20
near 10N139W, are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of=20
120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft=20
prevail elsewhere across the open waters.

For the forecast, the set of NW swell is forecast to spread=20
across the NW waters today. The cold front is forecast to weaken=20
rapidly today through the end of the week, while the associated=20
NW swell lingers into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, the=20
pressure gradient between high pressure over the northern=20
forecast waters and the surface troughs will maintain fresh to=20
strong winds and seas around 8 ft over the waters near the=20
trough. The troughs will merge while lifting northward through=20
Thu before dissipating by the end of the week. Fairly tranquil=20
marine conditions are forecast across the waters this weekend as=20
the pressure gradient slackens allowing for trades to diminish=20
and as the NW swell gradually decays.

$$
AL


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