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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220112183941.A008A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2022 18:39:41 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 121839
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 04N82W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N82W to 04N100W to 06N111W, then resumes from 
08N132W to 05N140W. No significant convection is noted with the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region has loosened
enough to diminish winds below gale force across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale winds, and seas of 8-11 ft now
prevail across the Tehuantepec region. The fresh to strong winds
over the central and southern Gulf of California have diminished
slightly this afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-5
ft are noted across the Gulf of California. Gentle to locally
moderate winds prevail across the waters west of the Baja
California peninsula, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over
the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail west of Baja
California, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. Abundant moisture is being 
advected northward from the deep tropics toward the Baja 
California peninsula enhancing convection across the waters from 
Cabo Corrientes northward. 

For the forecast, near gale force winds will persist across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. A gale force gap wind 
event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf 
of California will diminish by tonight, then return Thu through 
Fri. NW swell will propagate southeast across the waters offshore
of Baja California through Thu. Fresh to strong north winds are 
expected near Cabo Corrientes tonight into early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle 
winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft outside
of the Gulf of Papagayo region, mainly due to a south to 
southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will 
support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region through Sat, then again Sun night. Seas generated
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside by this evening. Gentle 
to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light
to gentle winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N138W to 
28N140W. The front has ushered in a fresh set of NW swell, with 
seas to 12 ft near 30N140W. Otherwise, high is pressure located 
north of the area near with ridging prevailing across the 
remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ and west of about 125W.
Subsiding NW swell, with seas of 8 to 11 ft, is across the 
waters north of about 06N and west of 120W. A pair of surface 
troughs are analyzed in the central open waters with an eastern 
trough from 20N115W to 13N114W, and a western trough from 
21N119W TO 09N127W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted in the vicinity of the troughs. Fresh to 
strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted from 17N to 22N 
between 115W and 120W. Moderate to fresh trades, locally strong 
near 10N139W, are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 
120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft 
prevail elsewhere across the open waters.

For the forecast, the set of NW swell is forecast to spread 
across the NW waters today. The cold front is forecast to weaken 
rapidly today through the end of the week, while the associated 
NW swell lingers into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, the 
pressure gradient between high pressure over the northern 
forecast waters and the surface troughs will maintain fresh to 
strong winds and seas around 8 ft over the waters near the 
trough. The troughs will merge while lifting northward through 
Thu before dissipating by the end of the week. Fairly tranquil 
marine conditions are forecast across the waters this weekend as 
the pressure gradient slackens allowing for trades to diminish 
and as the NW swell gradually decays.

$$
AL


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