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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A19 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
Message-ID: <20220112191554.EBFE51C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2022 19:15:54 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 121800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 121915 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CODY [CO-DEE] CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6S
175.4E AT 121800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 7 KNOTS.  
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45
KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM BUT DECREASED OVER NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR INTRUSION FROM WEST OF SYSTEM. CODY IS IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 26
DEGREES CELSIUS. CODY IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT 3.0.  MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, FT BASED ON
DT YIELDING T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 25.9S 176.2E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 26.9S 176.6E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 27.7S 177.1E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 28.5S 177.8E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TC
CODY.


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