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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220113120537.7BCB21C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2022 12:05:37 +0000
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602 
AWIO20 FMEE 131146

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/13 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

Over the eastern part of the basin, there is no clearly defined pattern.

Over the western part of the basin, a trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present up to 70oE feeding the Mozambique Channel and favoring a large low pressure area near Madagascar. The monsoon trough is present around 9S between 50E and 70E, and a second branch is visible in the channel around 17S.

Convective activity is mostly present:

- over the center of the Mozambique Channel at the convergence of flows.

- in the convergence of low layers west of the Mascarene Islands, which is organized around the low pressure present along the east coast of Madagascar.

- in the acceleration of the monsoon flow north of the monsoon trough.

In the Mozambique Channel, a small closed circulation is visible since this morning on the Ascat images in the center of the channel around 18oS with winds around 10kt. It will go eastward and will quickly touch the coasts of Madagascar without having time to intensify.

East of Madagascar, the closed circulation followed for a few days was visible on the Ascat passes this morning around 22oS with winds of 10/15kt. However, it is no longer clearly visible on the satellite images of the day. In the next few days, it will slowly move southward, then southeastward without really encountering environmental conditions favorable to its intensification and then disappear.

Note however, that on the eastern margin of this large area of low pressure, a northerly flow is still feeding a rainstorm degradation, potentially significant near or over the Mascarene Islands until the end of the week.

Over the extreme east of the basin, the signal of a very low risk of tropical storm formation is no longer consistent enough to be followed.

Finally, at the very end of the period, the assembly models begin to target a very low risk of tropical storm formation in the northeast of the Mascarene Islands. This signal will be monitored and detailed in the coming days.

Consequently, for the next 5 days, there is a very low risk of tropical storm formation in the Northeast Mascarene Islands from Tuesday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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