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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220113160445.4D6B91C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2022 16:04:45 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 131604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jan 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 1013 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N75W to 03N83W. The ITCZ continues from 03N83W 
to 06N103W to 08N115W. Scattered moderate convection is within
30 nm north of between 94W-97W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region is supporting
fresh to near gale force northerly winds along with seas of 8-10
ft.  An area of 8-9 ft NE swell that was generated by previously
gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region has propagated well 
southwest-west to just beyond the offshore waters. Fresh to 
strong NW winds are blowing over the central and southern Gulf of
California, with moderate NW winds in the northern Gulf of 
California. Seas of 3-5 ft are noted across the Gulf of 
California. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the 
waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with light to 
gentle winds elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, except 
moderate to fresh near Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 6-8 ft in NW 
Swell prevail west of Baja California, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. 
Fresh to strong winds near Cabo Corrientes are diminishing. 
Abundant moisture is being advected northward from the deep 
tropics toward the Baja California peninsula enhancing convection
across the waters from Cabo Corrientes northward. 

For the forecast, near gale force winds will persist across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. A gale force gap wind 
event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf 
of California will prevail through Fri, with similar conditions 
forecast in the northern Gulf of California Sat. NW swell will 
propagate southeast across the waters offshore of Baja California
through early today.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to 
fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds are south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, mainly due to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will 
support fresh to strong NE-E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo
region through Sat, then again Sun night through Mon night. 
Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through 
Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail south of the monsoon 
trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A large set of NW swell is propagating through the northwest 
part of the area, with seas peaking to 11 ft north of 27N west 
of 135W. Seas elsewhere are in the 8-10 ft w of a line from 
30N130W to 21N132W to 10N140W. A large trough is over the 
central open waters from near 23N123W to 15N126W to near 07N133W.
Isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen along and 
within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 94W-97W and between
104W-109W. Moderate to fresh trades, locally strong in the west-
central waters, are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 26N and
west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of
5-7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters.

For the forecast, the set of NW swell is forecast to continue
to spread across the NW waters early today, lingering into the 
upcoming weekend. The trough will dissipate by the end of the 
week. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast across the 
waters this weekend as the pressure gradient slackens allowing 
for trades to diminish and as the NW swell gradually decays.

$$
Aguirre


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