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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220113220545.561C61C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2022 22:05:45 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 132205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends northern Colombia near 10N75W 
southwestward to 03N83W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and 
continues to 06N99W to 07N105W to 09N118W, where it pauses It 
resumes at 06N135W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 94W-99W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region is supporting
fresh to near gale force northerly winds along with seas of 8-10
ft.  An area of 8-9 ft NE swell that was generated by previously
gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region has propagated well 
southwest-west of the offshore waters. Fresh to strong northwest 
winds are over the central and southern Gulf of California, with
moderate northwest winds in the northern Gulf of California. 
Seas of 3-5 ft are noted across the Gulf of California. Gentle to
locally moderate winds prevail across the waters west of the 
Baja California peninsula, with light to gentle winds elsewhere 
over the open waters off Mexico, except for moderate northwest
to north winds near Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 6-8 ft in northwest
swell prevail west of Baja California, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. 
Fresh to strong winds near Cabo Corrientes are diminishing. 
Abundant moisture is being advected northward from the deep 
tropics toward the Baja California peninsula enhancing 
convection over the waters north of 13N between 109W-126W.

For the forecast, near gale force winds will persist across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. A gale-force gap wind 
event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf 
of California will prevail through Fri, with similar conditions 
forecast in the northern Gulf of California Sat. West-northwest 
swell will propagate southeastward across the waters offshore of 
Baja California through early today.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to 
fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds are south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, mainly due to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will 
support fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds over the 
Gulf of Papagayo region through early Sat, then again Sun night 
through Mon night. Seas will build slightly in the Gulf of
Papagayo region early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will 
be present elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to 
fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A large set of northwest swell is propagating through the 
western part of the area west of a line from 30N117W to 17N117W 
and to 04N140W, with seas peaking to 11 ft. Seas elsewhere are 
in the 8-10 ft w of a line from 30N130W to 21N132W to 10N140W. A 
large trough is over the central open waters from near 23N123W to
15N126W to near 07N133W. Isolated to scattered moderate 
convection is seen along and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ 
between 94W-97W and between 104W-109W. Moderate to fresh trades,
locally strong in the west-central waters, are noted elsewhere 
north of the ITCZ to 26N and west of 120W, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere across
the open waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned set of northwest swell is 
forecast to gradually decay over the upcoming weekend. The 
trough is forecast to dampen out Sat. Weak low pressure is 
expected to develop over the far north-central waters Sat, with 
troughing to extend from it south-southwest to near 15N126W. 
Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast across 
the waters this weekend as the pressure gradient continues to 
slacken in addition to the northwest swell decaying.

$$
Aguirre


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