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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion...updated 
Message-ID: <20220114003330.E2DAA1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2022 00:33:30 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 140033 AAA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0033 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022

Updated Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical 

Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 
30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the 
Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information 
is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0015 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends northern Colombia near 10N75W 
southwestward to 03N83W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and 
continues to 06N99W to 07N105W to 09N118W, where it pauses It 
resumes at 06N135W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 94W-99W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated

The pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region is 
supporting fresh to strong north to northeast winds per the 
latest ASCAT pass. Seas there are 8-9 ft. An Area of 8-9 ft 
northeast swell that was generated by previously gale force 
winds in the Tehuantepec region has propagated well southwest-
west of the offshore waters. Fresh to strong northwest winds are 
over the central and southern Gulf of California, with moderate 
northwest winds in the northern Gulf of California. Seas of 3-5 
ft are noted across the Gulf of California. Gentle to locally 
moderate winds prevail across the waters west of the Baja 
California peninsula, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over 
the open waters off Mexico, except for moderate northwest to 
north winds near Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 6-8 ft in northwest 
swell prevail west of Baja California, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. 
Fresh to strong winds near Cabo Corrientes are diminishing. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds will in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region will increase to near gale-force tonight 
through early Fri. A gale-force gap wind event is possible in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf of California 
will prevail through Fri, with similar conditions forecast in 
the northern Gulf of California Sat. West-northwest swell will 
propagate southeastward across the waters offshore of Baja 
California through Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to 
fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds are south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, mainly due to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will 
support fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds over the 
Gulf of Papagayo region through early Sat, then again Sun night 
through Tue night. Seas will build slightly in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will 
be present elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to 
fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A large set of northwest swell is propagating through the 
western part of the area west of a line from 30N117W to 17N117W 
and to 04N140W, with seas peaking to 11 ft. Seas elsewhere are in 
the 8-10 ft west of a line from 30N130W to 21N132W to 10N140W. A 
large trough is over the central open waters from 23N123W to 15N126W 
and to near 07N133W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is 
seen along and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 94W-97W and 
between 104W-109W. Moderate to fresh trades, locally strong in the 
west-central waters, are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 26N 
and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5-
7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. Abundant moisture is 
being advected northward by strong upper winds from the deep tropics 
toward the northern part of the Baja California peninsula and 
California enhancing convection over the waters north of 13N between 
118W-126W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned set of northwest swell is 
forecast to gradually decay over the upcoming weekend. The 
trough is forecast to dampen out Sat. Weak low pressure is 
expected to develop over the far north-central waters Sat, with 
troughing to extend from it south-southwest to near 15N126W. 
Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast across 
the waters this weekend as the pressure gradient continues to 
slacken in addition to the northwest swell decaying.

$$
Aguirre


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