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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220114033820.152241C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2022 03:38:20 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 140338
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W 
southwestward to 02.5N82W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N84W to
08N118W, then resumes from 07N135W to beyond 05N140W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 95W and
111W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure centered well N of the region is supporting a weak
pressure gradient across the Baja California offshore waters 
tonight, where light to gentle N to NE winds prevail. Seas are 6 
to 8 ft in W to NW swell, with highest seas offshore of Baja Sur 
to near Las Tres Marias. Fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail
over the southern Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh 
winds across central portions of the Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail
across central portions and 5-6 ft across southern portions. 
Light to gentle winds elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, 
except for moderate northwest to north winds from offshore of Las
Tres Marias to Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 6-8 ft in northwest 
swell also prevail there. 

High pressure over eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico
continues to promote strong winds across the Tehuantepec region,
extending downwind to near 14N. Seas there are 7-8 ft. An Area 
of 8-9 ft seas in mixed NW and NE swell that was generated by 
previously gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region has 
propagated well southwest- west of the offshore waters to 113W.

Gap winds will in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will increase 
to near gale-force tonight through early Fri. A gale-force gap 
wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun 
night. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and 
southern Gulf of California will prevail through Fri, with 
similar conditions forecast in the northern Gulf of California 
Sat. West-northwest swell will continue to propagate 
southeastward across the offshore waters of Baja California 
through Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong 
northeast to east gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. 
Seas there are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted elsewhere north of 04N, except moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama to 04N. Seas are 3-5 
ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo region, mainly due to S to SW 
swell.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong 
northeast to east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region 
through early Sat, then again Sun night through Tue night. Seas 
will build slightly in the Gulf of Papagayo region early next 
week. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north of
04N, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light 
to gentle winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Large W-NW swell is propagating through the western part of the 
area west of a line from 30N122W to 20N125W to 05N140W, where
seas are 8 to 10 ft, except for an area of 11-12 ft seas near
18N138W occurring in a small area of fresh easterly winds. Seas 
elsewhere are in the 8-9 ft west of 120W. An elongated and deep
layered upper level low pressure system has become stationary
between 122W and 130W from 18N to 32N, where a surface trough
persists from 23N127W to 18N126W to 10N130W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring within 180 nm E of this trough from 16N
to 22N. Abundant tropical moisture is being advected northward on
the eastern side of the deep layered low, between 118W and 124W,
and reaching just beyond 30N. The pressure gradient between this
surface trough and high pressure well to the N is promoting 
moderate to locally fresh NE winds to the N and W of the trough. 
Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere N of the ITCZ
to 15N and W of 110W, except NE winds W of 130W.

For the forecast, the W-NW swell is forecast to gradually decay 
over the upcoming weekend. The trough is forecast to dampen out 
Sat. Weak low pressure is expected to develop over the far north-
central waters Sat, with troughing to extend from it south-
southwest to near 15N126W. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine 
conditions are forecast across the waters this weekend as the 
pressure gradient continues to slacken in addition to the 
northwest swell decaying.

$$
Stripling


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