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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220114092149.255A81C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2022 09:21:49 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 140921
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W 
southwestward to 02.5N80W TO 02.5N82.5W. The ITCZ extends from 
02.5N82.5W to 10N120W, then resumes from 08N133W to beyond 
05N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05.5N to 
07.5N between 98W and 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure centered well N of the region is supporting a weak
pressure gradient across the Baja California offshore waters 
tonight. Recent satellite derived scatterometer winds showed 
light N winds prevailing north of 20N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in W 
to NW swell, except 7-8 ft offshore of Baja Sur to near Cabo
Corrientes. Fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail over the
central and southern Gulf of California, with light to gentle 
winds across northern portions of the Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft 
prevail across central portions and 5-7 ft across southern 
portions. Light to gentle winds elsewhere over the open waters 
off Mexico, except for moderate north to northwest winds from 
offshore of Las Tres Marias to Cabo Corrientes. 

High pressure over eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico
continue to promote strong winds across the Tehuantepec region, 
extending downwind to near 14.4N. Seas there are 7-9 ft. An area
of 7-8 ft seas in mixed NW and NE swell that was generated by 
previously gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region has 
propagated well southwest-west of the offshore waters and extends 
to beyond 110W.

Gap winds will in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will increase 
to around 30 kt tonight then gradually diminish Fri before
shutting down late Fri afternoon. A gale-force gap wind event is
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Sun through Sun night.
Fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf
of California will diminish slightly to moderate to fresh Fri
afternoon through evening. Fresh northerly winds area expected in
the northern Gulf of California Sat and spreading southward
across the remainder of the Gulf through early Sun before
gradually diminishing. West-northwest swell will continue to 
propagate southeastward across the offshore waters of Baja 
California through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh 
northeast to east gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. 
Seas there are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted elsewhere north of 04N, except moderate to locally fresh 
northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama to 05N. Seas are 3-5 
ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo region, mainly due to S to SW 
swell.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong 
northeast to east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region 
through early Sat, then again Sun night through Tue night. Seas 
will build slightly in the Gulf of Papagayo region early next 
week. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north of
04N, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light 
to gentle winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Large W-NW swell is propagating through the western part of the 
area west of a line from 30N122W to 06N140W, where seas are 8 to
10 ft, except for an area of 11-12 ft seas near 17N139W 
occurring in a small area of fresh easterly winds. Seas elsewhere
are in the 8-9 ft west of 120W. An elongated and deep layered 
upper level low pressure system has become stationary between 
122W and 135W from 18N to 32N, where a surface trough persists 
from 23N125W to 17N127W to 11N131W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring within 300 nm E of this trough from 15N 
to 23N. Abundant tropical moisture is being advected northward 
on the eastern side of the deep layered low, between 118W and 
124W, and reaching just beyond 30N. The pressure gradient between
this surface trough and high pressure well to the N is promoting
moderate to locally fresh NE winds to the N and W of the trough.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere N of the 
ITCZ to 17N and W of 110W, except NE winds W of 130W.

The W-NW swell is forecast to gradually decay over the upcoming 
weekend. The trough is forecast to dampen out through Sun as it
lifts northward. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions 
are forecast across the waters this weekend as the pressure 
gradient remains weak to moderate and regional seas are dominated
by the decaying northwest swell.

$$
Stripling


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