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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220114114438.EA43B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2022 11:44:38 +0000
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747 
AWIO20 FMEE 141133

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/14 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin is defined by a weak to moderate trans-equatorial monsoon flow from the Kenyan coast to 70oE. At the western end of the basin, it extends to the center of the Mozambique Channel, feeding in part a wide area of low pressure in the vicinity of the western malagasy's coasts.

A first branch of monsoon trough (MT) undulates near 10S, between 50E and 60E and a second one is a little better defined towards 7S, between 67 and 77E.

Convective activity is currently present:

- over the center of the Mozambique Channel at the convergence of the monsoon flows and a southwesterly surge.

- in the low level convergences, West of the Mascarene Islands, which are organized around a weak and broad low-pressure zone present for several days off the Southeastern malagasy' s coast.

- in the acceleration of the monsoon flow north of the branch of the MT, located north of Agalega.

In the Mozambique Channel:

The weak clockwise circulation is poorly defined on visible imagery and has weak surface wind organization according to the latest ASCAT swath, which has mean maximum wind speed of 10kt maximum. This minimum has no potential of intensification in the next few days and will die on the Malagasy coast.

Between Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands:

Southeast of Madagascar, the low pressure area located around 25oS remains poorly defined on traditional imageries and show according to the 0630Z ASCAT-C swath a very elongated circulation, with near gale force wind in its southern sector, by gradient effect. This wide low-pressure area will shift very slowly to the southeast, without experiencing conducive environmental conditions to a significant deepening. However, on the eastern edge of this large low, a northerly flow is still feeding a rainstorm near or over the Mascarene Islands.

In the middle of next week, some deterministic and ensemble models begin to suggest a very low risk of tropical storm formation in the northeast of the Mascarene Islands. To date, there is no clear consensus on the deepening of this minimum, with a significant dispersion highlighted by GEFS and EPS.

This signal will be particularly followed and detailed during the next days.

Thus, for the next 5 days, there is a very low risk of tropical storm formation in the Northeast of the Mascarene Islands from Wednesday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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