Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220114160408.01C941C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2022 16:04:07 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1642176254-100959-447"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1642176254-100959-447
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

AXPZ20 KNHC 141604
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northwest to
north winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will diminish=20
to gentle to moderate speeds this afternoon. A gale-force gap=20
wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Sun=20
through Sun night as high pressure builds over the Gulf of=20
Mexico and eastern Mexico. Seas are expected to reach a peak of=20
about 14 ft with this upcoming event. Please see the latest NWS=20
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at=20
website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2=
.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uGOevBvJQMor6v9EvG_BhdwY3QdWHvLTccd-nHER6fEAV_NNiuS_6uS-G=
wzmwh3xNftMTmFJ$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W=20
southwestward to 08N86W to 07N93W. The ITCZ extends from=20
07N93W to 07N103W to 07N110W, where it pauses. It resumes at
12N109W to 10N119W to 10N129W. Scattered moderate convection=20
is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 102W-105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Please see the Special Features section above for details.

High pressure centered well north of the region is supporting a=20
weak pressure gradient across the Baja California offshore waters
tonight. Overnight scatterometer data showed fairly light north=20
winds prevailing north of 20N. Seas are 6-7 ft in west to
northwest swell, except 7-8 ft offshore of Baja Sur to near Cabo
Corrientes. Fresh to locally strong northwest winds continue=20
over the central and southern Gulf of California, with light to=20
gentle winds across northern portions of the Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft
remain across central portions and 5-7 ft across southern=20
portions. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open=20
waters off Mexico, except for moderate north to northwest winds=20
from offshore of Las Tres Marias to Cabo Corrientes.=20

High pressure over eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico
continues to induce fresh to strong winds across the Tehuantepec
region, extending downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to=20
near 14.4N. Seas there are 7-9 ft. An area of 7-8 ft seas in=20
due to mixed northeast and northwest swell that was generated by
previously gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region has=20
propagated well southwest- west of the offshore waters and=20
extends to beyond 110W. This area of swell will decay Sat.

Fresh to strong northwest winds in the central and southern Gulf
of California will diminish slightly to moderate to fresh Fri=20
afternoon through evening. Fresh northerly winds area expected in
the northern Gulf of California Sat and spreading southward=20
across the remainder of the Gulf through early Sun before=20
gradually diminishing. West-northwest swell will continue to=20
propagate southeastward across the offshore waters of Baja=20
California through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh=20
northeast to east gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region.=20
Seas there are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are=20
noted elsewhere north of 04N, except moderate to locally fresh=20
northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama to 05N. Seas are 3-5=20
ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo region, mainly due to S to SW=20
swell.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong=20
northeast to east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region=20
through early Sat, then again late Sun night through the middle
part of next week. Seas will build slightly in the Gulf of=20
Papagayo region early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will be
present elsewhere north of 04N, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of=20
Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail south of=20
the monsoon trough.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Large west to northwest swell is propagating through the western
part of the area west of a line from 30N122W to 20N127W to=20
05N140W, where seas are 8-11 ft, with the highest of the seas=20
located from 13N to 19N west of 137W.  Seas elsewhere are in the
8-9 ft west of 120W. An elongated and deep-layer upper-level low
pressure system has become stationary between 125W-136W from 19N
to 32N, where a surface trough is analyzed along a position from
near 24N125W to 18N127W and to 12N125W. Satellite imagery shows=20
scattered moderate convection within 60 nm of the trough from 16N
to 23N. Abundant tropical moisture is being advected northward=20
on the eastern side of the deep-layer low, between 118W and 125W,
and reaching just beyond 30N. The pressure gradient between this
surface trough and high pressure well to the north continues to
promote moderate to locally fresh northeast winds to the north=20
and west of the trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail
elsewhere north f the ITCZ to 17N and also west west of 110W,=20
except for northeast winds west of 130W.

The west to northwest W swell is forecast to gradually decay=20
over the upcoming weekend. The trough is forecast to dampen out=20
through Sun as it lifts northward. Otherwise, fairly tranquil=20
marine conditions are forecast across the waters this weekend as=20
the pressure gradient remains weak to moderate and regional seas=20
are dominated by the decaying northwest swell.

$$
Aguirre


------------=_1642176254-100959-447
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1642176254-100959-447--