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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220114220518.7E12D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2022 22:05:18 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 142205
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
2145 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gentle to moderate winds in=20
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will become light and variable=20
through Sat, then abruptly become gale-force gap winds late Sat=20
night through Sun night. as high pressure builds over the Gulf=20
of Mexico and eastern Mexico. Seas are expected to reach a peak=20
of about 14 ft with this upcoming event. Please see the latest=20
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center=20
at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSF=
EP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!v8tQup-K53wzGWgnNOCJIfK1S2cPOZvIo1_IaTBytRT2eHlspoJ-ta=
1pY_z8XEVH90ANfg0A$  for=20
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W=20
southwestward to 08N85W to 06N95W. The ITCZ extends from 07N95W=20
to 08N108W to 10N120W to 09N134W. Scattered moderate convection=20
is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 102W-105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for details.

High pressure centered well north of the region is supporting a=20
weak pressure gradient across the Baja California offshore=20
waters tonight.  Latest scatterometer data  indicates fairly=20
light north winds prevailing north of 20N. Seas are 6-7 ft in=20
west to northwest swell. Mainly fresh northwest winds are over=20
the central and southern Gulf of California, while light to=20
gentle winds northwest to north winds are over the northern part=20
of the Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft are in the central portion and
slightly higher seas of 4-6 ft are in the southern portion.
Per the latest scatterometer data, light to gentle winds are
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, except for moderate=20
north to northwest winds from offshore of Las Tres Marias to=20
Cabo Corrientes.=20

The gradient has weakened some over the southeastern Mexico=20
allowing for the earlier fresh to strong winds that were across the
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region to become light to gentle in speeds.
Seas there have diminished to 4-6 ft in a west to northwest swell.
An area of 7-8 ft seas due to mixed northeast and northwest swell
is located well to the southwest-west of the offshore waters and=20
extends to beyond 108W. This area of swell will decay late Sat.

Fresh northwest winds in the central and southern Gulf of California
will increase to strong Sat and Sat night, then diminish back to fresh Sun.
West-northwest swell will propagate southeastward across the waters
offshore of Baja California through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh=20
to strong northeast to east gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
region. Seas there are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are=20
noted elsewhere north of 04N, except moderate to locally fresh=20
northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama to 05N. Seas are 4-6=20
ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo region, mainly due to S to SW=20
swell.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong=20
northeast to east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region=20
through early Sat, then again late Sun night into early Mon,=20
and change little through the middle part of next week. Seas
in the Gulf of Papagayo region will change little into the middle
part of next week. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere
north of 04N, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through the middle
part of the upcoming week. Light to gentle winds will continue south of
the trough described under the ITCZ/Monsoon section.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Large west to northwest swell is propagating through the western
part of the area west of a line from 30N122W to 21N127W to=20
06N140W, where seas are 8-10 ft, with the highest of the seas=20
located from 13N to 18N west of 138W.  Seas elsewhere are in the
7-9 ft west of 122W. An elongated and deep-layer upper-level low
pressure system is presently stationary between 121W-135W from=20
19N to 32N, where a surface trough is analyzed along a position from
near 25N124W to 20N127W and to 16N127W. A second surface trough
 s analyzed to its east from 24N120W to 14N122W. Satellite imagery shows=20
scattered moderate convection within 60 nm east of the second=20
trough from 17N to 23N. Abundant tropical moisture continues to=20
be advected northward on the eastern side of the deep-layer low,
roughly between 118W-124W and reaching just beyond 30N. The
pressure gradient between the first surface trough and high pressure
located to well to the north continues to promote moderate to locally
fresh northeast winds to the north and west of the trough. Moderate=20
to fresh northeast to east winds are within 120 nm on either side of=20
the second trough. The aforementioned upper-level low is forecast to
lift north and northeast this weekend allowing for mainly gentle north to
northeast winds to exist west of the first trough. Gentle to moderate
easterly winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 16N, and=20
west of about 110W, except for mainly northeast winds west of 130W.

The west to northwest swell is forecast to gradually decay=20
over the upcoming weekend. The trough is forecast to dampen out=20
through Sun as it lifts northward. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine condit=
ions
are forecast across the waters this weekend as the pressure gradient remains
weak to moderate and regional seas are dominated by the decaying northwest =
swell.

$$
Aguirre


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