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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220115082932.A06EA1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2022 08:29:32 +0000
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521 
WWPS21 NFFN 150600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 150829 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F CENTER [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.1S
153.2W AT 150600UTC. TD04F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

AN ACTIVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANDS WRAPS ONTO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTH. THE SUPPOSED LLCC IS IN A MODERATE DIFFLUENT REGION
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH LOW TO
MODERATE WIND SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY DEEPEN IT AND
MOVING IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 HRS IS VERY
LOW AND LOW IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

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 NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

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