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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220115121427.EE1C71C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2022 12:14:27 +0000
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402 
AWIO20 FMEE 151212

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/01/15 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present over the whole basin but is more marked west of 70oE. The convergence with the trade wind is not well defined but the configuration of the low level winds allows to define a branch of Monsoon Trough (MT) between 6S and 9S and between 60E and 75E.

Convective activity is now essentially present within this branch of the MT. It has clearly strengthened compared to yesterday. The wind filtering at 850 hPa shows the presence of a Kelvin wave that is contributing to the strengthening of the convective activity and the strengthening of the westerly winds on the northern side of the MT.

A low-pressure system should appear within this MT during the next 48 hours. However, in the first part of next week, moderate easterly shear, dry mid-tropospheric air of subtropical origin, as well as a slightly weak low-level convergence on the southern side, should limit the chances of rapid development of this low. The conditions become more favorable from the middle of the week and a more regular development seems then possible.

This initial slow development scenario is supported by the GEFS and EPS ensemble forecasts.

Consequently, for the next 5 days, there is a low risk of formation of a tropical storm in the North of the Mascarene Islands from Wednesday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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