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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220115163158.67E0A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2022 16:31:58 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 151631
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jan 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Expect light and variable=20
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region today into tonight.
By late tonight, winds will abruptly become gale-force and will
continue through Sun night. This will occur as another cold=20
front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico with high pressure=20
building over the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico behind it.=20
Seas are expected to peak near 14 ft with this event by Sunday=20
evening. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by=20
the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!sLeqvoyj-kV5NqjnWFADiD6fU7XhwLmNohsUi6kTD1biCNQTBx0f_YQG5tTwUKuhs=
V481FZU$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 07N78W=20
southwestward to 04N84W to 05N96W. The ITCZ extends from 05N96W=20
to 07N115W to beyond 08N140W. No significant convection is noted
at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec from
tonight through Sunday night. Please see the Special Features=20
section above for details.

High pressure northwest of the region is supporting a weak=20
pressure gradient across the Baja California offshore waters.=20
A deep layered upper level low pressure west of 120W supports a=20
surface trough between 118W and 128W which is deflecting high=20
pressure west of the area. Moderate northerly winds prevail=20
across the Baja offshore waters to 18N. Seas are 5-7 ft in W-NW=20
swell. Fresh to locally strong NNW winds are noted over most of=20
the Gulf of California with seas of 3-4 ft in the central=20
Gulf and 4-5 ft in the southern Gulf. Showers continue to stream
across Baja California and the northern Gulf of California.=20
Light to gentle W to NW winds are elsewhere across the open=20
waters off Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel with=20=20
seas of 4-6 ft. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms persist=20
across the offshores of Guerrero and Oaxaca from 13N to 17N=20
between 95W and 102W. This convection will continue through=20
today.

Marine conditions are tranquil across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
region with light to gentle winds. Seas are to 3-4 ft in a west=20
to northwest swell. An area of 6-7 ft seas due to mixed northeast
and northwest swell is located well to the southwest- west of=20
the offshore waters and extends to 108W. This area of mixed swell
will decay late today. Isolated thunderstorms are noted across=20
the Gulf.=20

Gale-force winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
late tonight through Sunday night. Seas will peak over 12 ft by=20
Sunday evening. Strong winds will pulse again by Mon night. Fresh
winds across the Gulf of California will become strong this=20
evening and continue through Sun morning. Peak seas will reach=20
5-7 ft late tonight through Sun morning. Fresh winds will prevail
through Sun night over the Gulf. W-NW swell will continue to=20
move through the waters offshore of Baja California through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh=20
NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. It is also
bringing NE fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama. Seas in both=20
Gulfs are reaching 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted=20
elsewhere north of 05N. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the Gulf of=20
Papagayo and Gulf of Panama, mainly due to S to SW swell.

Fresh northeast to east gap winds will continue across the Gulf
of Papagayo this morning. Winds will strengthen fresh to strong=20
by early Mon morning and persist through mid-week. Seas will=20
increase 6-9 ft Tue into Wed. The Gulf of Panama will continue
pulsing to fresh through Thu with seas reaching 6-7 ft with peak
winds. A trough will continue to extend across the Central=20
American offshores with gentle to moderate winds north of it and=20
light to gentle winds south of it.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Moderate west to northwest swell is propagating through the north
and west parts of the area west of a line from Baja California=20
to 03N140W, where seas are 7-9 ft. Seas elsewhere are 7-8 ft=20
west of 115W. An elongated and deep-layer upper-level low=20
pressure system is presently stationary between 120W-130W from=20
15N-32N, where a broad inverted surface trough is noted 122W-=20
128W to the north of 17N. Satellite imagery shows thunderstorms=20
near the trough from 16N-20N between 126W-130W. Tropical moisture
continues to advect northward on the eastern side of the deep-
layer low, roughly between 118W- 124W and reaches as far north as
32N. The pressure gradient between the surface trough and high=20
pressure located to the northwest continues to promote moderate=20
to locally fresh NE winds to the west of the trough. The upper=20
level low is forecast to lift northward this weekend, allowing=20
for mainly gentle north to northeast winds to persist west of the
surface trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail=20
elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 17N, and west of about 110W,=20
except for mainly northeast winds west of 128W.

The W-NW swell will gradually decay by Sun. The trough is=20
forecast to drift W through Sun, while weak low pressure develops
near 31N128W. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient across
the regional waters and fairly tranquil marine conditions.=20
Looking ahead, a new trough is expected to develop north of the=20
ITCZ along 128W by Tue, and meander northward through mid week.=20
Increasing winds and seas will be seen near the trough and north=20
of 20N during this time, as the pressure gradient increases.

$$
AKR


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