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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220115215906.9D6F51C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2022 21:59:06 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 152159
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build behind
a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Light and variable
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through tonight. By=20
16/0900 UTC tonight, winds will abruptly become gale- force and=20
will continue through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak near=20
14 ft with this event by Sunday evening.  Please see the latest=20
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2=
.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!uNH6MWR2piOwP9p7aNvpomSEDoWIxihvruJLrXEidxZ-PKYYvj8B3rWLp=
nhGakH2hjXunKCc$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of northwest Colombia=20
near 07N77W southwestward to 04N82W to 06N99W. The ITCZ extends=20
from 06N99W to 07N118W to beyond 09N140W. No significant=20
convection is noted at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec from
tonight through Sunday night. Please see the Special Features=20
section above for details.

High pressure northwest of the region is supporting a weak=20
pressure gradient across the Baja California offshore waters.=20
A deep layered upper level low pressure west of 120W is=20
deflecting high pressure west of the area. Gentle northerly=20
winds prevail across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 5-7 ft=20
in W-NW swell. Fresh to locally strong NNW winds are noted over=20
the Gulf of California with seas of 3-5 ft. Showers continue to=20
stream across Baja California and the northern Gulf of=20
California. Light to gentle W to NW winds are elsewhere across=20
the open waters off Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas of 3-5 ft. No significant convection is
occurring across this area at this time.=20

Gale-force winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
late tonight through Sunday night. Seas will peak over 12 ft by=20
Sunday evening. Strong winds will pulse again by Mon night. Fresh
winds across the Gulf of California will become strong this=20
evening and continue through Sun morning. Peak seas will reach=20
4-6 ft late tonight through Sun morning. Fresh winds will then
prevail through Sun night over the Gulf. W-NW swell will continue
to move through the waters offshore of Baja California through=20
Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh=20
NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. It is also
bringing NE fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama. Seas in both=20
Gulfs are reaching 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted=20
elsewhere north of 05N. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the Gulf of=20
Papagayo and Gulf of Panama, mainly due to S to SW swell.

Fresh northeast to east gap winds will continue across the Gulf
of Papagayo this morning. Winds will strengthen fresh to strong=20
by early Mon morning and persist through mid-week. Seas will=20
increase 6-9 ft Tue into Wed. The Gulf of Panama will continue
pulsing to fresh through Thu with seas reaching 6-7 ft with peak
winds. A trough will continue to extend across the Central=20
American offshores with gentle to moderate winds north of it and=20
light to gentle winds south of it.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Moderate west to northwest swell is propagating through the north
and west parts of the area west of a line from Baja California=20
to 03N140W, where seas are 7-9 ft. Seas elsewhere are 7-8 ft=20
west of 115W. An elongated and deep-layer upper-level low=20
pressure system is presently stationary between 120W-130W from=20
15N-32N, where a broad inverted surface trough is noted 122W-=20
128W to the north of 17N. Satellite imagery shows thunderstorms=20
near the trough from 16N-20N between 126W-130W. Tropical moisture
continues to advect northward on the eastern side of the deep-
layer low, roughly between 118W- 124W and reaches as far north as
32N. The pressure gradient between the surface trough and high=20
pressure located to the northwest continues to promote moderate=20
to locally fresh NE winds to the west of the trough. The upper=20
level low is forecast to lift northward this weekend, allowing=20
for mainly gentle north to northeast winds to persist west of the
surface trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail=20
elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 17N, and west of about 110W,=20
except for mainly northeast winds west of 128W.

The W-NW swell will gradually decay by Sun. The trough is=20
forecast to drift W through Sun, while weak low pressure develops
near 31N128W. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient across
the regional waters and fairly tranquil marine conditions.=20
Looking ahead, a new trough is expected to develop north of the=20
ITCZ along 128W by Tue, and meander northward through mid week.=20
Increasing winds and seas will be seen near the trough and north=20
of 20N during this time, as the pressure gradient increases.

$$
AKR


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