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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220115222049.263DE1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2022 22:20:48 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 152220
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build=20
behind a cold front sweeps through the Gulf of Mexico. Light and=20
variable winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
region through tonight. By 16/0900 UTC tonight, winds will=20
abruptly become gale- force and will continue through Sun night.=20
Seas are expected to peak near 14 ft with this event by Sunday=20
evening. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by=20
the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!oBuf0kKCibFJt0rX2ywZf7jt2tsJRj2lhybdew5f3O8Cq49OTlTHN1r6RxoIuHH8L=
7cqGAjZ$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of northwest Colombia=20
near 07N77W southwestward to 04N82W to 06N99W. The ITCZ extends=20
from 06N99W to 07N118W to beyond 09N140W. No significant=20
convection is noted at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec from
tonight through Sunday night. Please see the Special Features=20
section above for details.

High pressure northwest of the region is supporting a weak=20
pressure gradient across the Baja California offshore waters.=20
A deep layered upper level low pressure west of 120W is=20
deflecting high pressure west of the area. Gentle northerly=20
winds prevail across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 5-7 ft=20
in W-NW swell. Fresh to locally strong NNW winds are noted over=20
the Gulf of California with seas of 3-5 ft. Showers continue to=20
stream across Baja California and the northern Gulf of=20
California. Light to gentle W to NW winds are elsewhere over the
open waters off Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec with seas of 3-5 ft. No significant convection is=20
occurring across this area at this time.=20

Gale-force winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
late tonight through Sunday night. Seas will peak over 12 ft by=20
Sunday evening. Strong winds will pulse again by Mon night in
this area. Fresh winds across the Gulf of California will become
strong this evening and continue through Sun morning. Peak seas=20
will reach 4-6 ft late tonight through Sun morning. Fresh winds=20
will then prevail through Sun night over the Gulf. W-NW swell=20
will continue to move through the waters offshore of Baja=20
California through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NE to E gap winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo as high pressure builds across the Gulf of=20
Mexico. It is also bringing NE moderate to locally fresh winds=20
over the Gulf of Panama. Seas in both Gulfs are reaching 4-6 ft.=20
Light winds prevail north of a surface trough stretching across
the Central American offshores with gentle winds south of it.=20
Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of=20
Panama, mainly due to S to SW swell.

Expect winds to strengthen fresh to strong by early Mon morning
in the Gulf of Papagayo and persist through most of the week.=20
Seas will increase 6-9 ft Tue into Wed. The Gulf of Panama will=20
continue pulsing to fresh through Wed night with seas reaching=20
6 ft with peak winds. The surface trough will continue to extend
across the Central American offshores with light to gentle winds
north of it and gentle winds south of it.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Moderate west to northwest swell is propagating through the north
and west parts of the area west of a line from Baja California=20
to 03N140W, where seas are 7-9 ft. Seas elsewhere are 7-8 ft=20
west of 115W. An elongated and deep-layer upper-level low=20
pressure system is centered near 30N126W. This is inducing a=20
broad inverted surface trough with its axis extending from=20
22N125W to 30N123W. Light to gentle winds are along the trough.=20
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from=20
16N to 23N between 123W to 129W. Tropical moisture continues to=20
advect northward on the eastern side of the deep- layer low,=20
roughly between 118W- 124W and reaches as far north as 31N.=20
Gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 23N and W of 128W. The=20
upper-level low is forecast to lift northward this weekend.=20
Expect mostly gentle north to northeast winds to persist west of=20
the surface trough as it lifts north. The latest ASCAT pass shows
gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere north of the
ITCZ to 23N, and west of 120. Moderate to fresh winds prevail=20
south of the ITCZ.=20

The W-NW swell will gradually decay by Sun. The trough is=20
forecast to drift W through Sun, while weak low pressure develops
near 31N129W. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient across
the regional waters and fairly tranquil marine conditions.=20
Looking ahead, a new trough is expected to develop north of the=20
ITCZ near 127W by Tue and meander northward through mid week.=20
Increasing winds and seas will be seen near the trough and north
of 18N during this time as the pressure gradient increases.

$$
AReinhart


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