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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220116031641.98FE21C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2022 03:16:41 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 160316
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build
behind a cold front currently sweeping across the Gulf of=20
Mexico, which has moved past Veracruz, Mexico and into the
western Bay of Campeche in the past few hours. Light and=20
variable winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will
abruptly give way to strong N gap winds, with winds expected to
reach gale-force by 0900 UTC tonight, then continue through Sun=20
night. Seas are expected to peak near 14 ft with this event by=20
Sunday evening. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!v5hYk9VZgA52LTcy3luGE3HVGIZYMAgaUr56XsX5R_NfkIufyZNTK2xv6RyHUVtla=
sBgB8O8$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of northwest Colombia=20
near 10.5N74W southwestward to 04N81W to 05.5N95W. The ITCZ=20
extends from 05.5N95W to 07N129W to beyond 10N140W. No=20
significant convection is noted at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec from
tonight through Sunday night. Please see the Special Features=20
section above for details.

High pressure northwest of the region is supporting a weak=20
pressure gradient across the Baja California offshore waters.=20
Deep layered upper level low pressure west of 120W is deflecting
high pressure west of the area. Gentle northerly winds prevail=20
across the Baja offshore waters this evening. Seas are 6-7 ft in
W-NW swell. Fresh to locally strong NNW winds are occurring over
the Gulf of California with seas of 4-6 ft. Showers occurring
earlier across central portions of Baja California and the=20
northern Gulf of California have shifted eastward across NW
Mexico. Light to gentle W to NW winds are elsewhere over the=20
open waters off Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec with seas of 3-5 ft.=20

Gale-force winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
late tonight through Sunday night. Seas will peak over 12 ft by=20
Sunday evening. Strong winds will pulse again by Mon night in
this area. Fresh winds across the Gulf of California will become
strong this evening and continue through Sun morning. Peak seas=20
will reach 4-7 ft late tonight through Sun morning. Fresh winds=20
will then prevail through Sun night over the Gulf. W-NW swell=20
will continue to move through the waters offshore of Baja=20
California through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Afternoon scatterometer wind data showed fresh NE to E gap winds
across the Gulf of Papagayo, but have diminished slightly this
evening. High pressure across the western Atlantic is supporting=20
moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds over the Gulf of Panama.=20
Seas in both Gulfs are reaching 4-6 ft. Light winds prevail north
of a surface trough stretching across the Central American=20
offshores with gentle winds south of it. Seas are 3-5 ft outside=20
of the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama, mainly due to S to SW
swell.

Expect winds to strengthen fresh to strong by early Mon morning
in the Gulf of Papagayo and persist through most of the week.=20
Seas will increase 6-9 ft Tue into Wed. The Gulf of Panama will=20
continue pulsing to fresh through Wed night with seas reaching=20
6 ft with peak winds. The surface trough will continue to extend
across the Central American offshores with light to gentle winds
north of it and gentle winds south of it.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Moderate west to northwest swell continues to propagate through=20
the north and west parts of the area west of a line from Baja=20
California to 03N140W, where seas are 7-10 ft. Seas elsewhere=20
are 7-8 ft west of 115W. An elongated and deep-layer upper-level=20
low pressure system is centered near 34N124W and extends S-SW
across the area waters and into the tropics to near 15N136W.=20
This is inducing a broad inverted surface trough with its axis=20
extending from 30N125W to 15N126W. Light to gentle winds are=20
along and east of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is=20
noted near the trough from 17N TO 24N between 121.5W and 126W.=20
Tropical moisture continues to advect northward on the eastern=20
side of the deep- layer low, roughly between 118W-124W and=20
reaches as far north as 32N. High pressure NW of the trough is=20
supporting gentle to moderate NE winds W of trough to 10N. The=20
upper-level low is forecast to lift northward this weekend.=20
Expect mostly gentle north to northeast winds to persist west of=20
the surface trough as it lifts north.=20

The W-NW swell will gradually decay through Mon. The trough is=20
forecast to drift W through Sun, while weak low pressure develops
near 31N129W. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient across
the regional waters and fairly tranquil marine conditions.=20
Looking ahead, a new trough is expected to develop north of the=20
ITCZ near 127W by Tue and meander northward through mid week.=20
Increasing winds and seas will be seen near the trough and north=20
of 18N during this time as the pressure gradient increases.

$$
Stripling


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