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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220116060153.39D2E1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2022 06:01:53 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.3S 154.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 154.3W, APPROXIMATELY
214 NM SOUTHWEST OF BORA-BORA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RECENT 160257Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION IN
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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