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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220116092059.C24CB1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2022 09:20:59 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 160920
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is
building across eastern Mexico behind a cold front currently=20
sweeping across the Gulf of Mexico, which has moved past=20
Veracruz, Mexico and into the central Bay of Campeche in the=20
past few hours. Strong northerly winds have begun to spill across
the nearshore waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the past few
hours, with winds expected to reach gale-force by 0900 UTC=20
tonight, then continue through Sun night. Seas are expected to=20
peak near 14 ft with this event by Sunday evening. Please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane=20
Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text=
/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oI9FHxxLlcBtaqWarpjELxuhS1ZX6k0NkmFuGR7GlmTl3b9=
ViLDTDwdNu67oaLYIlPj1yiJ2$=20=20
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of northwest Colombia=20
near 11N72W southwestward to 04.5N81W to 05.5N93W. The ITCZ=20
extends from 05.5N93W to 07N129W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15.5N W of 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec from
tonight through Sunday night. Please see the Special Features=20
section above for details.

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 31N121W, and is=20
supporting a weak pressure gradient across the Baja California=20
offshore waters. Light to gentle N to NE winds prevail across=20
the Baja offshore waters tonight and extend to 20N. Seas are 6-7
ft in W-NW swell. Fresh to locally strong NNW winds are=20
occurring over the Gulf of California with seas of 4-6 ft.=20
Showers occurring earlier across the northern Gulf of California
have shifted eastward and inland across NW Mexico. Light to=20
gentle W to NW winds are elsewhere over the open waters off=20
Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas=20
of 3-5 ft.=20

Gale-force winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
in the next few hours and continue through Sunday night. Seas=20
will peak at 13-14 ft by Sunday evening. Strong winds will pulse
again by Mon night in this area. Fresh to strong winds across=20
the Gulf of California will continue through Sun morning. Peak=20
seas will reach 4-7 ft late tonight through Sun morning. Fresh=20
winds will then prevail through Sun night over the Gulf. W-NW=20
swell will continue to move through the waters offshore of Baja=20
California through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo.=20
High pressure across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate=20
to locally fresh N-NE winds over the Gulf of Panama. Seas in both
Gulfs are reaching 4-5 ft. Light winds prevail north of a=20
surface trough stretching across the Central American offshores=20
with gentle winds south of it. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the=20
Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama, mainly due to S to SW swell.

Expect winds to strengthen to fresh to strong by early Mon=20
morning in the Gulf of Papagayo and persist through most of the=20
week. Seas will increase 6-9 ft Tue into Wed. The Gulf of Panama=20
will continue pulsing to fresh through Wed night with seas=20
reaching 6 ft with peak winds. A surface trough will continue to
extend across the Central American offshores with light to=20
gentle winds north of it and gentle winds south of it.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Moderate west to northwest swell continues to propagate through=20
the north and west parts of the area west of a line from Cabo
Corrientes to 00N120W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Seas elsewhere are
6-7 ft west of 110W. An elongated and deep-layered upper level=20
low pressure system is centered near 35N125W and extends S-SW=20
across the area waters and into the tropics to near 16N128W.=20
This features has persisted across the region for the past few
days and has induced a broad inverted surface trough extending=20
from 30N126W to 15N127W. Light to gentle winds are along and=20
east of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted near=20
the trough from 19N TO 27N between 119W and 124W. High pressure=20
NW of the trough is supporting gentle to moderate NE winds W of=20
trough to 10N. The upper-level low is forecast to lift northward=20
and weaken through Mon. Expect mostly gentle north to northeast=20
winds to persist west of the surface trough as it drifts westward
and weakens.

The W-NW swell will gradually decay through Mon. The trough is=20
forecast to drift W through Mon, while weak low pressure=20
develops just N of the area. This will maintain a weak pressure=20
gradient across the regional waters and fairly tranquil marine=20
conditions. Looking ahead, a new surface trough is expected to=20
develop north of the ITCZ near 127W-128W by Tue and drift=20
northward through mid week. Increasing winds and seas will be=20
seen near the trough and north of 18N during this time as the=20
pressure gradient increases.

$$
Stripling


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