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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220116122139.21ECB1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2022 12:21:39 +0000
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894 
AWIO20 FMEE 161205

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/16 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is mainly present west of 70oE. Convergence with the trade winds is not well defined but the low level wind circulation shows a branch of Monsoon Trough (MT) between 60 and 75oE and from 11oS to 8oS. Convective activity is mainly present near this MT, between the southeast of Agalega and the Chagos, where it continues to strengthen compared to previous days. Convergence is indeed favored by a surge of westerly to northwesterly winds on the northern side of the MT in connection with favorable equatorial wave activity, in particular the passage of a Kelvin wave.

A low-pressure system should appear within this MT during the next 48 hours, between Agalega and Saint-Brandon. However, in the first part of the week, environmental conditions are not optimal, with moderate easterly shear, dry mid-tropospheric air, and too weak low-level convergence on the south side. Conditions become more favorable from the middle and especially the end of the week with the strengthening of a subtropical ridge southeast of the Mascarene Islands giving a more assertive trade wind flow, converging more efficiently with the monsoon flow, which also intensifies under the effect of the equatorial wave activity. At the same time, the tropospheric column's moisture should increase near this minimum. Under these conditions, chances of development become more serious by the end of the week over an area located off the north of the Mascarene Islands and east of Madagascar. This development scenario is supported by the GEFS and EPS ensemble forecasts as well as some 
 determin
 istic scenarios, with probabilities becoming more significant from Friday, suggesting a moderate risk of cyclogenesis by the end of the week. This risk could possibly concern the immediate vicinity of Madagascar's eastern coast according to some of the scenarios.

In addition, the strengthening of the MT at the end of the week towards the center of the basin could trigger the emergence of a second area of vorticity located further east, southeast of the Chagos (around 75/80oE and 10oS). Some scenarios thus suggest storm development, but rather during the following weekend, in a more distant future, which will be monitored in the next bulletins.

The risk of development of a tropical storm becomes weak from Thursday then moderate from Friday off the east coast of Madagascar and off the north of the Mascarene Islands.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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