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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220116203410.558411C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2022 20:34:10 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 162033
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between=20
strong high pressure across eastern Mexico and the equatorial
trough is supporting gale- force gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. The gale- force winds are expected to continue=20
through tonight. Seas are expected to peak near 14 ft with this=20
event by this evening. Another gale- force gap wind event is
possible the end of the week. Please see the latest NWS High=20
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!s1g9ELKgJ4EmidkQDJHlskxMA33uDUsSTMLjjvPVo1BGRZsLi5uwW82tyBJUA6deg=
qWN7a2W$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N77W to 05N81W to 06N93W. The=20
ITCZ continues from 06N93W to 05N101W to beyond 08N140W.=20
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N W of=20
132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through=20
tonight. Please see the Special Features section above for=20
details.

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 31N121W.=20
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a=20
surface trough over western Mexico is supporting fresh to locally
strong winds across the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate=20
winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula as well as=20
the waters west of Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are=20
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range over the Gulf of=20
California, 5-6 ft over the waters west of the Baja California=20
peninsula and west of Cabo Corrientes, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gale-force N winds will prevail across the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec through late tonight before diminishing.=20
Gale- force winds are possible over the Tehuantepec region once=20
again the end of the week. Fresh winds are expected across the=20
Gulf of California through tonight. W-NW swell will continue to=20
move through the waters offshore of Baja California through Mon.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of=20
Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds over the Gulf of=20
Panama. Seas in both Gulfs are in the 4-5 ft range. Light winds=20
prevail north of a surface trough stretching across the Central=20
American offshores with gentle winds south of it. Seas are 3-5 ft
outside of the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama, mainly due=20
to S to SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate gap winds across the Papagayo region=20
will strengthen Mon morning and persist through most of the=20
week. Northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will continue=20
pulsing to fresh through Wed night. A surface trough will=20
continue to extend across the Central American offshores with=20
light to gentle winds north of it and gentle winds south of it.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Moderate west to northwest swell continues to propagate through=20
the north and west parts of the area west of a line from Cabo
Corrientes to 00N120W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Seas elsewhere are
6-7 ft west of 110W. An elongated and deep-layered upper level=20
low pressure system is centered near 35N125W and extends S-SW=20
across the area waters and into the tropics to near 20N128W.=20
This feature has persisted across the region for the past few=20
days and has induced a broad inverted surface trough extending=20
from 30N127W to 20N127W. Light to gentle winds are along and east
of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the=20
trough from 20N TO 30N between 116W and 122W. High pressure NW=20
of the trough is supporting gentle to moderate NE winds W of the=20
trough to 10N. The upper-level low is forecast to lift northward=20
and weaken through Mon. Expect mostly gentle north to northeast=20
winds to persist west of the surface trough as it drifts westward
and weakens.

The W-NW swell will gradually decay through Mon. The trough is=20
forecast to drift W through Mon, with weak low pressure just N=20
of the area. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient across=20
the regional waters and fairly tranquil marine conditions.=20
Looking ahead, a new surface trough is expected to develop north=20
of the ITCZ near 127W-128W by Tue and drift northward through mid
week. Increasing winds and seas will be seen near the trough and
north of 18N during this time as the pressure gradient=20
increases.

$$
AL


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