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Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
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827 
WWPS21 NFFN 170000 CCA
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 170049 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F CENTER [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.8S
158.9W AT 160900UTC. TD04F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR AND VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

AN ACTIVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANDS WRAPS ONTO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SUPPOSED LLCC IS IN A
MODERATE DIFFLUENT REGION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND
SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFCATION
WHILE MOVING IT WESTWARDS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 48 HRS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------


 NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.


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