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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220117031303.168A21C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 03:13:03 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 170312
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between=20
strong high pressure across eastern Mexico and the equatorial
trough is supporting gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec. These gale-force winds are expected to continue=20
through tonight before diminishing early Mon through Mon
afternoon. Seas are assumed to have recently peaked near 14 ft.=20
Another gale-force gap wind event is possible the end of the=20
week. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!s59y5y36WOQg8PszcRpM-HzBS9jFtZTIj0QkXYHVy8pG6Y8EsFlERNx4KMwkaCwhx=
yEBVsd-$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09.5N74.5W to 05.5N79W to 05.5N92W.
The ITCZ continues from 05.5N92W to 09N122W to beyond 08.5N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11.5N between
122W and 130W, and from 10N to 17.5N W of 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through=20
tonight. Please see the Special Features section above for=20
details.

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 30.5N120W.=20
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a=20
surface trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate to=20
locally fresh winds across the Gulf of California. Gentle to=20
moderate N to NE winds prevail west of the Baja California=20
peninsula, while gentle winds prevail across the waters west of=20
Cabo Corrientes extending westward. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range
over the Gulf of California, 5-7 ft over the waters west of the=20
Baja California peninsula and west of Cabo Corrientes, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, gale-force N winds will prevail across the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec through late tonight before diminishing
through Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong gap wind flow is expected
to continue across the Tehuantepec region through Tue afternoon
before becoming moderate to fresh. Gale-force winds are possible
over the Tehuantepec region once again by Fri. Fresh winds are=20
expected across the Gulf of California through tonight before
becoming gentle to moderate Mon. W-NW swell will continue to=20
move through the waters offshore of Baja California through Mon.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of=20
Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are over the Gulf
of Panama. Seas in both Gulfs are in the 4-5 ft range. Light=20
winds prevail north of a surface trough stretching across the=20
Central American offshores with gentle winds south of it. Seas=20
are 3-5 ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama,=20
mainly due to S to SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate gap winds across the Papagayo region=20
will strengthen to fresh to strong Mon morning and persist=20
through most of the week. Northerly winds across the Gulf of=20
Panama will continue pulsing to fresh through Wed night. A=20
surface trough will continue to extend across the Central=20
American offshores with light to gentle winds north of it and=20
gentle winds south of it.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Moderate west to northwest swell continues to propagate through=20
the area waters west of a line from Tehuantepec to Cabo=20
Corrientes to 00N100W, where seas are 6-8 ft, except for higher=20
seas across Tehuantepec. An elongated and deep-layered upper=20
level low pressure system is centered near 33N127W and extends=20
S-SW across the area waters and into the tropics to near 20N125W.
This feature has persisted across the region for the past few=20
days and has induced a broad inverted surface trough extending=20
from a 1015 mb surface low near 30.5N127W to 17N127W. Light to=20
gentle winds are along and east of the trough. Scattered light
convection is noted near the trough from 24N TO 30N between 116W
and 124W. High pressure NW of the trough is supporting gentle to
moderate N to NE winds W of the trough to 10N. The upper-level=20
low is forecast to lift northward and weaken through Mon. Expect=20
mostly gentle north to northeast winds to persist west of the=20
surface trough as it drifts westward and weakens.

The W-NW swell will gradually decay through Mon. The surface trough
is forecast to drift W through Mon, with weak low pressure just=20
N of the area. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient across
the regional waters and fairly tranquil marine conditions.=20
Looking ahead, a new surface trough is expected to develop north=20
of the ITCZ near 127W-128W by Tue and drift northward through mid
week. Increasing winds and seas will be seen near the trough and
north of 18N during this time as the pressure gradient increases.
There is a potential for winds to reach near gale force Thu from
20N to 25N with seas 10 ft and higher.

$$
Stripling


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