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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220117085336.3754B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 08:53:35 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 170853
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between=20
high pressure across eastern Mexico and the equatorial trough is
supporting gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Scatterometer data from around 0400 UTC showed gale-force winds
across Tehuantepec north of 15N. These gale-force winds are=20
expected to continue for a few more hours before gradually
diminishing early Mon through Mon afternoon. Seas are assumed to
still remain at 10-12 ft. Another gale-force gap wind event is=20
possible the end of the week. Please see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!p698GLeXYbPOlQOHCPd9DWfmwzUhw1eLWekVPASbwtFv6Q-Mw_eSIr65X4K2U-3qP=
0aKmETH$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09.5N74.5W to 05.5N79W to 06N89W.=20
The ITCZ continues from 06N89W to 08N130W to beyond 07.5N140W.=20
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between=20
121W and 130W, and from 10.5N to 20N W of 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through=20
early Mon. Please see the Special Features section above for=20
details.

High pressure of 1019 mb is centered west of the Baja Peninsula near
28N118W. The pressure gradient between this area of high=20
pressure and a surface trough over western Mexico is supporting=20
moderate to locally fresh winds across the Gulf of California.=20
Gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds prevail west of the=20
Baja California peninsula, while gentle winds prevail across the=20
waters west of Cabo Corrientes extending southwestward. Seas are
in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf of California, 5-7 ft over the
waters west of the Baja California peninsula, and 4-7 ft west of
Cabo Corrientes.

Gale-force N winds tonight across Tehuantepec will diminish below
gale force in the next few hours and than gradually diminish=20
through Mon afternoon, then pulse to around 30 kt Mon night.=20
Fresh to strong gap wind flow is expected to continue across the=20
Tehuantepec region through Tue afternoon before becoming moderate
to fresh. Gale-force winds are possible over the Tehuantepec=20
region once again by Fri. Moderate to locally fresh winds across
the Gulf of California tonight will become gentle to moderate=20
Mon. W-NW swell will continue to move through the waters offshore
of Baja California through Mon.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo
tonight. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are over the Gulf=20
of Panama. Seas are 4-5 ft across the Papagayo region and 3-4 ft
across the Gulf of Panama. Light winds prevail north of a=20
surface trough stretching across the Central American offshores=20
with gentle winds south of it. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the=20
Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama, mainly due to S to SW swell.

Gap winds across the Papagayo region will strengthen to fresh to
strong Mon morning and persist through most of the week, with
seas downwind building to 7-8 ft each late night. Northerly=20
winds across the Gulf of Panama will continue pulsing fresh to
locally strong through Wed night. A surface trough will continue
to extend across the Central American offshores with light to=20
gentle winds north of it and gentle winds south of it.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Moderate west to northwest swell continues to propagate through=20
the regional waters, and reached 90W tonight. Seas are 6-8 ft,=20
except for higher seas downwind of Tehuantepec. An elongated and
deep-layered upper level low pressure system is centered near=20
35N126W and extends S-SW across the area waters and into the=20
tropics to near 20N125W. This feature has persisted across the=20
region for the past few days and has induced a broad inverted=20
surface trough extending from a 1016 mb surface low near=20
30.5N124W to 20N121W. Light to gentle winds are found within 250
nm either side of the trough. Scattered light convection is=20
noted near the trough from 20N TO 29N between 116W and 124W.=20
High pressure NW of the trough is supporting gentle to moderate N
to NE winds W of the trough to 10N. The upper-level low is=20
forecast to lift northward and weaken through Mon. Expect mostly=20
gentle north to northeast winds to persist west of the surface=20
trough as it drifts westward and weakens.

The W-NW swell will gradually decay through Mon. The surface trough
is forecast to drift W through Wed, with weak low pressure just=20
N of the area. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient across
the regional waters and fairly tranquil marine conditions.=20
Looking ahead, a new surface trough is expected to develop north=20
of the ITCZ near 130W-132W by Tue and drift northward through=20
mid week. Increasing winds and seas will be seen near the trough=20
and north of 18N during this time as the pressure gradient=20
increases. There is a potential for winds to reach minimal gale=20
force by early Thu from 20N to 25N with seas 10 ft and higher.

$$
Stripling


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