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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220117144014.13B031C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 14:40:14 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 171440
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 06N89W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N89W to 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N east of 80W, from 
08N to 11N between 120W and 130W, and from 11N to 20N W of 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished below gale
force. Strong to near gale- force winds, with seas to 10 ft 
prevail. High pressure of 1018 mb is centered west of the Baja 
Peninsula near 26N117W. The pressure gradient between this area 
of high pressure and a surface trough over western Mexico is 
supporting gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf of 
California as well as west of the Baja California peninsula. 
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters
off Mexico. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf of 
California, and 5-7 ft over the remainder of the open waters off
Mexico. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue. Gale- force winds are possible 
over the Tehuantepec region once again the end of the week. W-NW 
swell will continue to move through the waters offshore of Baja 
California through Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are over the Gulf
of Panama. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Papagayo region and 4-5 ft
across the Gulf of Panama. Light winds prevail north of a 
surface trough stretching across the Central American offshores 
with gentle winds south of it. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the 
Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama, mainly due to S to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across 
the Papagayo region through most of the week. Northerly winds 
across the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh through Wed night. 
A surface trough will extend across the Central American 
offshores with light to gentle winds north of it and gentle winds
south of it. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Moderate west to northwest swell continues to propagate through 
the regional waters reaching 90W. Seas are 6-8 ft, except for 
higher seas downwind of Tehuantepec. An elongated and deep- 
layered upper level low pressure system is centered near 35N124W
and extends S-SW across the area waters and into the tropics to 
near 20N125W. This feature has persisted across the region for 
the past few days and has induced a broad inverted surface trough
extending from a 1015 mb surface low near 30N127W to 22N126W. 
Light to gentle winds are found within 250 nm either side of the 
trough. High pressure NW of the trough is supporting gentle to 
moderate N to NE winds W of the trough to 10N. The upper-level 
low is forecast to lift northward and weaken through today. 
Expect mostly gentle north to northeast winds to persist west of 
the surface trough as it drifts westward and weakens.

The W-NW swell will gradually decay today. The surface trough is
forecast to drift W through Wed, with weak low pressure just N 
of the area. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient across 
the regional waters and fairly tranquil marine conditions. 
Looking ahead, a new surface trough is expected to develop north 
of the ITCZ near 130W-132W by Tue and drift northward through mid
week. Increasing winds and seas will be seen near the trough and
north of 18N during this time as the pressure gradient 
increases. There is a potential for winds to reach minimal gale 
force by early Thu from 20N to 25N with seas 10 ft and higher.

$$
AL


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