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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220117204318.A17311C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 20:43:18 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 172043
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 06N87W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N87W to 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N east of 80W, from 
08N to 12N between 120W and 130W, and from 12N to 20N between 
128W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong to near- gale force winds, and seas of 8-9 ft prevail 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak pressure gradient across 
the remainder of the area is supporting mainly light to gentle 
winds across the discussion waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range 
over the Gulf of California, and 5-7 ft over the remainder of the
open waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue. Gale- force winds are possible 
over the Tehuantepec region once again the end of the week. W-NW 
swell will continue to move through the waters offshore of Baja 
California through Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are over the Gulf
of Panama. Seas are 5-7 ft across the Papagayo region. Light 
winds prevail north of a surface trough stretching across the 
Central American offshores with gentle winds south of it. Seas 
are 4-6 ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly due to S to 
SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across 
the Papagayo region through most of the week. Northerly winds 
across the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh through Wed night. 
A surface trough will extend across the Central American 
offshores with light to gentle winds north of it and gentle winds
south of it. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Subsiding west to northwest swell continues across the waters
west of 90W, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. A broad surface 
trough extends from a 1018 mb surface low near 33N120W to 
20N123W. Light to gentle winds are found within 250 nm either 
side of the trough. High pressure NW of the trough is supporting 
gentle to moderate N to NE winds W of the trough to 10N. Expect 
mostly gentle north to northeast winds to persist west of the 
surface trough as it drifts westward and weakens.

The W-NW swell will decay by tonight. The surface trough is 
forecast to drift W through Wed, with weak low pressure just N of
the area. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the
regional waters and fairly tranquil marine conditions. Looking 
ahead, a new surface trough is expected to develop north of the 
ITCZ near 130W-132W by Tue and drift northward through mid week. 
Increasing winds and seas will be seen near the trough and north 
of 18N during this time as the pressure gradient tightens. There
is the potential for winds to reach minimal gale force by early 
Thu from 20N to 25N with, seas 10 ft and higher.

$$
AL


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