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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220118031639.D36851C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2022 03:16:39 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 180316
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia to 04N79W to 04.5N83W.
The ITCZ continues from 04.5N86W to 04.5N96W to 10N135W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 08N between
78W and 80W, from 08N to 12.5N between 118W and 130W, and from 
12.5N to 19N between 126W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong N to NE winds, and seas of 7-8 ft prevail across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, and extend downwind to near 14.5N. A weak 
pressure gradient across the remainder of the area is supporting 
mainly light to gentle winds across the offshore waters from Baja
California Norte to Puerto Angel. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range 
over the Gulf of California, and 5-7 ft over the remainder of the
open waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue night before diminishing moderate
to fresh through Thu afternoon. Gale-force winds are possible 
over the Tehuantepec region once again the end of the week. W-NW 
swell will continue to move through the waters offshore of Baja 
California through Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, where seas are 5 to 7 ft downwind. Moderate to locally
fresh N-NE winds are over the Gulf of Panama.  Light winds 
prevail north of a surface trough stretching across the Central 
American offshores with gentle winds south of it. Seas are 4-6 ft
outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly due to S to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across 
the Papagayo region through most of the week, with fresh winds
extending beyond 90W late tonight through Tue morning. Northerly
winds across the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh through Wed 
night. A surface trough will extend across the Central American 
offshores with light to gentle winds north of it and gentle winds
south of it. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Subsiding west to northwest swell continues across the waters
west of 90W, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. A broad surface 
trough extends from a 1016 mb surface low near 31.5N121W to 
21N125W. Light to gentle winds are found within 250 nm either 
side of the trough. High pressure NW of the trough is supporting 
gentle to moderate N to NE winds W of the trough to 10N. Expect 
mostly gentle north to northeast winds to persist west of the 
surface trough as it drifts westward and weakens through Tue.

Small to moderate W-NW swell will continue to move through the
waters W of 110W through the end of the week. The surface trough
is forecast to drift W through Tue, with weak low pressure just 
N of the area. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient across
the regional waters and fairly tranquil marine conditions. 
A new surface trough is expected to develop north of the ITCZ 
near 130W-132W on Tue and drift northward through mid week. 
Increasing winds and seas will be seen near and north of the
trough during this time as the pressure gradient tightens. There
is the potential for winds to reach minimal gale force by early 
Thu from 20N to 25N with, seas 10 ft and higher.

$$
Stripling


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